The Patriots were adjusted from about 3-point favorites vs. the Steelers to -1.5 at CG Technology upon Tuesday's news that Tom Brady's four-game suspension has been upheld by commissioner Roger Goodell. At William Hill, the Pats were adjusted from -3 (-120) to -2.5, and from -170 to -150 on the money-line. The moves continue a roller-coaster ride of reaction by the betting market to the Deflategate saga.
CG Technology was one of the few Las Vegas sports books to have never taken that Week 1 game of its board – in fact, it remains off the board at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as the NFLPA plans to take the league to court to fight the suspension.
When Brady's suspension was first announced on May 11, New England was moved from -6.5 to -1.5 at CG , a number that drew action on the Pats from sharp bettors. From there, the number settled in the -3, -3.5 range. It was Pats -3 (-120) before Tuesday's news.
"When news like this breaks, you (tend to) get a flurry of sharp action right away, so that's why we try to make a big adjustment initially," Jason Simbal, VP of risk management at CG told The Linemakers on Sporting News. "Going from 6.5 to 1.5 is pretty big, so I think the 1.5 where we are right now is probably not going to get too much action either way."
The total has been on a ride of its own. It opened 54 and was bet to 53.5 a few weeks later. When Brady's suspension was handed down, the number was reposted 49, and after today's news, the new total of 47.5 lasted just over an hour before being adjusted to 48.5.
Next up for New England
The three other games impacted by Brady's four-game suspension (CG in April opened wagering on all NFL games through Week 16 ) saw smaller line adjustments, and with the exception of the Week 3 tilt vs. the Jaguars, there has not been much in the way of additional moves.
Week 2
open: Patriots -1 at Bills
move: Bills -2.5
Week 3
open: Jaguars at Patriots -11.5
move: -8.5
Week 5 (New England has a bye in Week 4)
open Patriots at Cowboys (pick 'em)
move: Cowboys -3
Said Simbal, "As soon as the announcement came out, all the games moved, and for some reason – probably because the most action is bet on Week 1 and it's the thing that's closest in people's minds – that Week 1 game moved back toward the Patriots."
The Pats have since moved from -8.5 vs. the Jags to -10, as bettors laid the points despite Brady's suspension. The other games settled after they were moved.
Simbal said his team of bookmakers will let the money dictate how these lines move from here and that the numbers won't be adjusted based on today's news.
Season win total
Bookmakers have less wiggle room on win totals than they do with point spreads. In the Patriots' case, the number opened 10.5 and was adjusted to 10 at multiple shops. That already creates the possibility for the house to get "sided" – where UNDER bets cash and OVER bets push if New England wins exactly 10 games. Moving the number to 9.5 presents a worse potential scenario – getting "middled" (bets on OVER 9.5 and UNDER 10.5 both win if the Pats win exactly 10 games).
CG opened the Pats at 10.5 wins with OVER juiced to -135, and moved to 10 (OVER -180) after the initial news. Simbal anticipates going to about 10 (UNDER -140).
"We're basically going to flip-flop the juice. Since we started at 10.5, we really can't go to 9.5 for obvious reasons. We don't want to get caught on that 10. ... We'll just keep it 10 and kind of play with the juice."
The Westgate made a similar early move and has taken OVER action since, largely from gamblers anticipating Brady's suspension would be reduced (which could still happen).
The Pats opened at 10.5 wins (OVER -130, UNDER +110) at the Westgate and were moved to 10 wins (OVER +130, UNDER -150), before action pushed the juice on OVER 10 wins to -150.
"We've had a bunch of OVER money on the Patriots, so if we take some UNDER money now, that's just fine," Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said.
Added Simbal, "Everybody's guessing. We're guessing as the bookmaker, assuming he's going to get suspended all four games. People who bet on them are probably thinking he'll play maybe two of them because there's still some (legal) stuff that could happen."
So what's our guess?
With or without Tom Brady, the Pats have the confidence of The Linemakers' Micah Roberts. Kenny White isn't so sure.
"They've had 12 or more wins in the regular season the last five years and were 10-6 or better 13 of the last 14 years," Micah said. "I don't even care if Brady misses the first four games, they're still winning at least 10 games again."
Retorted Kenny, "Oh, I don't know. It's hard to argue that they won't because they're such a machine, but the division is getting better – every team in the division is better. … This is probably one of the best divisions in football, so I think the Patriots have a tough road."
