THE INTRO
I am too tired to be clever today. I'm sorry.
What's that you say? "How is this different from any other week? You are never clever"? That's not very nice.
This is definitely one of those "grass is always greener" dilemmas. Right now, I hate all the writing work that I am getting because it is wearing me out.
Next month, when there is no football left to write about and I am bored and broke, I will complain about how I never have enough work to do.
There is something to be learned here. Appreciate what you have? Always look at the glass as half full? Respect your elders? Never look a gift horse in the mouth?
Wait, those last two aren't relevant.
What was I talking about again?
I'm going to sleep.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 2 - 1 - 0 (.667)
Spread "Leans": 4 - 4 - 0 (.500)
Spread "Coin Flips": 3 - 2 - 0 (.600)
With the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 10
- 6 - 0 (.625)
Season
Spread "Picks": 28 - 29 - 1 (.491)
Spread "Leans": 54 - 56 - 5 (.491)
Spread "Coin Flips": 15 - 19 - 0 (.441)
With the spread: 97 - 104 - 7 (.483)
Without the spread: 119 - 88 - 1 (.575)
DIME VS. DIME (Since Week 10)
Dave's Dime: 36-34-5 (9-7-0 last week)
A Dime: 42-28-5 (9-7-0 last week)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(?) Oakland (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
(?) Miami (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)
($) Buffalo (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
($) Kansas City (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
(/) Minnesota (+6.5) @ Baltimore (-6.5)
(/) Tennessee (+13.5) @ Denver (-13.5)
(/) St. Louis (+4.5) @ Arizona (-4.5)
(?) NY Giants (+4.0) @ San Diego (-4.0)
(/) Seattle (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5)
THE BAD
(?) Houston (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
(/) Indianapolis (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
(/) Atlanta (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
(/) Cleveland (+10.0) @ New England (-10.0)
(?) Detroit (+2.5) @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
($) Carolina (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
(/) Dallas (-1.0) @ Chicago (+1.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
San Diego (+10.0) @ Denver (-10.0)
Denver's defense is always a concern, but at home I thought they would comfortably out-shoot the Chargers in the cold weather Thusday night. I was obviously wrong.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver (LOSS)
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Denver) (LOSS)
SUNDAY
(?) Washington (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0)
At this point with all of the controversy around Mike Shanahan and how bad the team is in general, I don't really expect much from the Washington Redskins this days. But Atlanta is pretty damn pitiful this year too, and do you really feel good giving the Falcons six points? I don't like either side, but forced to choose, I think Kirk Cousins can keep the Redskins in the game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Atlanta)
(/) Chicago (-1.0) @ Cleveland (+1.0)
Not only has Chicago proven to be vulnerable on the road this season, but I think there is a chance that Jay Cutler's return could mess up the synergy of the locker room. Shockingly enough, Josh McCown has been sensational this season, and many believe the Bears should stick with him. If Cutler gets off to a slow start (which would be understandable with rust in a road game), players might start thinking about how things would be going if McCown were in. Chicago should win this game, but I feel like they won't.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Cleveland)
($) Houston (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0)
Andrew Luck has never lost back-to-back games in hist NFL career as the Colts are 9-0 straight up and against the spread in their last nine games coming off of a loss. This week they host Houston, the league punching bag that lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars twice. Is there any reason to overthink this?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Indianapolis)
(?) New England (+1.5) @ Miami (-1.5)
New England beats Denver, then struggles against Houston and Cleveland. This team is as unpredictable as ever, and while they certainly look beatable, the Dolphins have lost seven straight against the Patriots and aren't exactly the most consistent team in the world themselves. So... I guess... New England? It is December, after all.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: New England)
(/) Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Minnesota (+6.5)
The Minnesota Vikings have been fighting teams hard over the last few weeks, as illustrated again last week in another last-second loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Philadelphia has been playing lights out, and is clearly the team to beat in the NFC East; but I also think the Eagles are due for a slip-up. This feels like the kind of game it could come in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Philadelphia)
(/) Seattle (-7.5) @ NY Giants (+7.5)
I don't love giving up over a touchdown on the road, but the alternative is taking the mediocre Giants against an angry Seattle team that will want to re-establish its dominance coming off of a loss last week. So yeah, I'm going with the Seahawks.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: NY Giants)
($) San Francisco (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay (+4.0)
This is about as clear-cut of a trap game as you will ever see. 1. San Francisco is coming off of an emotionally draining win over a division rival, while Tampa Bay had a fairly easy assignment last week against Buffalo. 2. San Francisco travels across the country off of last week's huge game while Tampa Bay is playing its second straight game at home. 3. San Francisco is fighting for a playoff spot while Tampa Bay is playing loose with nothing to lose, and 4. The line opened at San Francisco -5 and moved down to San Francisco -4 despite most of the public action coming in on the 49ers. San Francisco may overcome all of this and win, but I definitely think the Buccaneers are the right side in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: San Francisco)
(/) Buffalo (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Honestly, I think Jacksonville is the better team at this point. The Jags still aren't good enough to beat a "real" team, but at home against the Bills? This is the type of game that the Jaguars can win, and have been winning over the last few weeks. I think that this is the week that they kill my "Season Under 5 Wins" bet by beating Buffalo.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Buffalo)
($) Kansas City (-5.0) @ Oakland (+5.0)
I feel this strange sense of deja vu. Wasn't Kansas City on the road against a lousy team last week in Washington, and wasn't that a complete blowout? Sure, this one is a division rivalry game, but the Raiders' solid start is a thing of the past at this point as the team is ravaged by injuries and lacking the ability to put together a 60-minute effort on any given week. 60-minute efforts happen to be Kansas City's strong point, and the Chiefs should have no trouble putting the Raiders away by a touchdown or more Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Kansas City)
($) NY Jets (+10.0) @ Carolina (-10.0)
I don't like giving up 10 points against a solid defense like New York's. But when I try to visualize this game in my head, I can't figure out how the Jets manage to score on this Carolina defense. Either they play super conservatively on offense to avoid turnovers and create no offense, or they take chances and Carolina takes advantage of those chances by forcing turnovers. Factor in the Panthers being upset after last week's big loss, and this doesn't shape up to be a very promising game for the Jets, who might be outscored by the Carolina defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: NY Jets)
(/) Green Bay (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
If Aaron Rodgers were back, I'd feel pretty comfortable in taking the Packers. But with Matt Flynn still at the helm, I don't believe that Green Bay will be able to keep up with Tony Romo and the Cowboys, who should be able to score enough to put this game out of reach and cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Dallas)
(/) Arizona (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
The Cardinals are the real deal, and there is a very good chance that their final game of the season against the San Francisco 49ers will be a play-in game for the final NFC Wild Card spot. But first, they have to take care of business against Tennessee. I don't foresee that being too much of an issue for them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Arizona)
(/) New Orleans (-6.0) @ St. Louis (+6.0)
At some point, the New Orleans Saints are going to have to prove to themselves that they can play well and win on the road. This would be a great opportunity to do that, going up against a team that has lost two straight and five of its last seven. I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints continued their inconsistent play on the road, but I think they can win this one by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: St. Louis)
(/) Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh (+2.5)
I'm completely torn on this one. I think Cincinnati is clearly the better team, and could actually be this year's dark horse team out in the AFC. But with the Steelers coming off of a loss at home last week and playing at home again this week, I think there is too much pride here to lose back-to-back games at home in December; especially with the second game coming on primetime. It will take the Steelers' best effort, but I'm leaning towards them giving it tonight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Pittsburgh)
MONDAY
(/) Baltimore (+6.0) @ Detroit (-6.0)
I can't really separate these two teams much in mind. Strong (but inconsistent) passing offenses, not much of a running game, and general underachieving this season. As a result, I find myself leaning heavily towards the points, as I picture this being a very close game as opposed to a clear-cut Detroit win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit
(DIME FLIP W/ SPREAD: Detroit)
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
FINAL RECORD: 41 – 41 – 2 (.500)
Bowl coverage may or may not be coming soon. We'll see!
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!
For past issues of the Dime and all of my current and archived work, visit www.davesdime.com
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