Here’s a handicapper’s perspective on how Week 14 of the NFL season unfolded:
More touchdowns — 104 of them — were scored this week than in any on other week in NFL history, and the 859 points were also the most compiled in NFL history.
Not surprisingly 11 of 16 games went OVER the total. Well, let’s rephrase that. Maybe the surprise was that more games didn’t go OVER, given all of the scoring.
Which brings us back to one of our core handicapping beliefs: it is possible to show a profit betting totals and point spreads in the long term, but it is not easy.
Here are three lessons we took from the Week 14 slate:
1. The Cowboys’ defense can’t cope with good offenses. The Cowboys couldn’t stop the Bears’ balanced attack in a 45-28 loss at Chicago on Monday night. Looking forward, of course Dallas can beat Green Bay on Sunday, especially if Aaron Rodgers remains out. Dallas can probably also handle Washington in Week 16. However, the Cowboys could have a world of trouble with the Eagles’ potent offense in the season finale. The Cowboys’ leaky defense must be factored into spread and totals handicapping; note that Dallas is 8-5 to the OVER this season.
2. In a similar vein, the Bears’ defense makes Chicago easy for OVER players to love and hard for point spread handicappers to embrace. The OVER has hit in nine of 13 Bears games, which speaks to the wonder of Chicago’s offense and the weakness of its stop unit. Even in an otherwise impressive win vs. Dallas, the Bears allowed touchdowns on four of nine drives and surrendered six yards per play. Nothing will be easy for the Bears down the stretch. First, they have to deal with Browns star wideout Josh Gordon Sunday. Then comes a trip to Philadelphia. The Bears finish with the Packers, who have the skill-position talent to give Chicago problems with or without Rodgers. The Bears can score, but can they get enough stops? They’ve covered only three spreads all season.
3. You never know with snow. It wasn’t a good week to bet the UNDER in games played in wintry weather, with Lions-Eagles (total: 49.5), Chiefs-Redskins (44), Dolphins-Steelers (40) and Vikings-Ravens (41.5) all going OVER the total. That said, in defense of UNDER bettors in Lions-Eagles and Vikings-Ravens, both games seemed like strong bets for much of the way; neither was close to going OVER before the fourth quarter. However, the lesson here is that snow didn’t ultimately limit the scoring in these games. In fact, it may have helped it.
For Mike Wilkening's full column, including nine more handicapping lessons gleaned from Week 14 and some quick takes on Week 15, visit The Linemakers on Sporting News.
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