THE INTRO
What an outstanding day of football we have coming up.
I mean seriously. I usually use this section to ramble on about some nonsense unrelated to football, but wow.
No Cinderella stories. No "team with nothing to lose" gets hot at the right time. Just the four best teams in football ready to battle it out.
Should be fun. And then the Super Bowl in the bitter cold?!?
Oh football. The fact that you keep me so endlessly entertained while my team is so endlessly hopeless is awfully impressive.
The more I break these two games down, the less strongly I feel about picking a side. But here goes nothing.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 1 - 2 - 1 (.333
)
Without the spread: 2 - 2 - 0 (.500)
Over/Under: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)
Playoffs
With the spread: 3 - 4 - 1 (.429)
Without the spread: 4 - 4 - 0 (.500)
Over/Under: 5 - 3 - 0 (.625)
Regular Season (Final)
Spread "Picks": 33 - 30 - 1 (.524)
Spread "Leans": 76 - 68 - 6 (.528)
Spread "Coin Flips": 17 - 23 - 0 (.425)
With the spread: 126 - 121 - 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 152 - 103 - 1 (.596)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
New Orleans (+8.0) @ Seattle (-8.0) Under 46.5
San Francisco (-1.0) @ Carolina (+1.0) Under 42.0
San Diego (+9.5) @ Denver (-9.5)
San Diego (+9.5) @ Denver (-9.5) Under 54.5
New Orleans (+8.0) @ Seattle (-8.0) TIE
THE BAD
Indianapolis (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)
Indianapolis (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0) Under 52.0
San Francisco (-1.0) @ Carolina (+1.0)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
SUNDAY
New England (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5)
I can't even begin to formulate an opinion on this one, and that really stems from the fact that I don't know what to expect from these defenses at all. Denver's defense has been bad all season, but then suddenly had an outstanding game against San Diego last week. New England's defense has had its ups and downs this season but has generally appeared to be the more reliable unit. The Patriots have the more balanced attack thanks to a strong running game, and if you told me before the game that one team was going to win by double digits, I'd take the Patriots. I have more faith in their defense and their versatility on offense. But not given that pregame declaration, do I really believe that Denver isn't going to be able to score and is going to lose at home here? Not really. I can see this game playing out any number of ways, but in the end it will probably come down to Brady or Manning being the hero or the goat on the final drive of the game. I actually really like the value on getting the Patriots at +5.5, but as far as picking the winner goes, I lean ever so slightly towards the home team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
OVER/UNDER 56.0: Over (35-31 Denver)
San Francisco (+3.5) @ Seattle (-3.5)
Yeah, this game is much easier to call... or not. Everyone knows how awesome Seattle is at home (16-1 straight up, 12-5 against the spread last 17 at home), but it isn't like San Francisco is a slouch on the road (7-1 SU, 6-0-2 ATS last five road games). It is easy to point to two straight blowouts the last two times these teams have met in Seattle as proof that Seattle will win, but on the contrary, this could also serve as added motivation for the 49ers. The trickiest thing here is that in a vacuum on a neutral field, I actually like the 49ers better; they've been more consistent on offense this season and appear to be in top form. But this isn't a vacuum. This is CenturyLink Field, the loudest building in the country, and Kaepernick and the 49ers haven't proven that they can win there. The spread moving to 3.5 is a big clue too I think... it feels like sportsbooks are pleading with us to take San Francisco. This is the game we've all been waiting for since the preseason, and Seattle earned the home field that could end up being the difference.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
OVER/UNDER 38.5: Under (20-13 Seattle)
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
FINAL RECORD: 41 – 41 – 2 (.500)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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