THE INTRO
No one could blame you for walking out on the film "Dave's Dime 2013".
It was, by virtually all counts, a terrible movie. A complete train wreck. The plot was awful (terrible handicapper makes terrible picks and cries about it when he's wrong), the main character (said whining loser) was completely unlikeable, and the writing and directing was terrible too.
Even near the end, when the main character faked his death in Las Vegas, no emotional response was elicited. And who can blame the audience? Hack movie, hack star.
And yet, those that stuck around to the end actually saw it all come together. The ending was masterful. It was like the ending to the Usual Suspect or the Sixth Sense, except those movies were brilliant throughout, not just at the end... but you get the idea.
3-0 on picks, 8-1 on leans, 1-3 on coin flips.
When the dust settled, we had the Dime's best record since 2008. We also delivered the exact message that I was hoping to convey from the get-go; that I'm better at picking games in which I actually have an opinion on (109-98, .527) than those that I'm forced to pick because I pick them all (17-23, .425).
If you didn't know better, by the end of the film, you'd... think I had a clue.
That is the magic of Hollywood.
So to the five of you that unsubscribed this year: Neener neener neener. You missed a hell of a conclusion.
Oh, right. They don't get these anymore. Damn it.
Happy new year everyone!
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Spread "Leans": 8 - 1 - 0 (.889)
Spread "Coin Flips": 1 - 3 - 0 (.250)
With the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 13
- 3 - 0 (.813)
Regular Season (Final)
Spread "Picks": 33 - 30 - 1 (.524)
Spread "Leans": 76 - 68 - 6 (.528)
Spread "Coin Flips": 17 - 23 - 0 (.425)
With the spread: 126 - 121 - 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 152 - 103 - 1 (.596)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Baltimore (+6.5) @ Cincinnati (-6.5)
(?) Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
(/) Jacksonville (+10.5) @ Indianapolis (-10.5)
($) NY Jets (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
(/) Detroit (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
($) Washington (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
(/) Cleveland (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
($) Green Bay (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
(/) Denver (-10.5) @ Oakland (+10.5)
(/) Tampa Bay (+11.5) @ New Orleans (-11.5)
(/) Kansas City (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
(/) St. Louis (+11.5) @ Seattle (-11.5)
THE BAD
(/) Carolina (-6.0) @ Atlanta (+6.0)
(?) Buffalo (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
(?) San Francisco (-1.0) @ Arizona (+1.0)
(?) Philadelphia (-7.0) @ Dallas (+7.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
SATURDAY
Kansas City (+1.5) @ Indianapolis (-1.5)
All season I've been saying that I thought Kansas City would have a good year, and the Chiefs certainly did. But looking under the hood on this season, who did the Chiefs actually beat? Kansas City went just 1-5 against opponents that finished the season with a record of over .500, and that win was against Philadelphia in the first half of the year when the Eagles weren't playing nearly as well as they are now. Could Kansas City's second half struggles simply be the result of not having anything to play for with a Wild Card spot locked up and no shot at winning the division? Perhaps. But I can't overlook the fact that this team doesn't have a quality win all year, so asking it to go on the road and beat a good Colts team that finished strong doesn't seem wise.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 46: Over (28-24 Indianapolis)
New Orleans (+2.5) @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
How do you deal with a team that is 1-5 straight up and 0-6 against the spread in its last six road games? Especially when that team is going into a bitterly cold city on Saturday averaging only 13.3 points per game over its last six road games. In New Orleans, this would be a very easy pick on the Saints. At a neutral location, it would be an interesting game to try to handicap. But in Philadelphia, with the way that the Eagles are playing and the way that the Saints play on the road, how can you go any other way but picking the Eagles? Sure, the Saints could randomly shake off their road woes and play well enough to win this week, but these road woes aren't a manufactured story line by the media; the team plays completely differently on the road than it does at home, and that's bad news for the Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 54: Under (27-20 Philadelphia)
SUNDAY
San Diego (+6.5) @ Cincinnati (-6.5)
I'm right on the fence about the spread and the total in this game, as my projected score (27-21 Cincinnati) falls right on the mark of both of the Vegas lines. I've been saying all season long how high I am on the Bengals, and I still believe that this is the most underrated team in the postseason. A hard path lies ahead with potential road trips to New England and Denver, but I think Cincinnati could be this year's "surprise" team. Then again, they could fizzle out in the playoffs like they have the last two years and get upset by a hot San Diego team, too. This is what makes the NFL so much fun... but I'm definitely sticking with my version of the story, that the Bengals win this week and give New England a run for their money next week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
OVER/UNDER 46.5:
Over (27-21 Cincinnati)
San Francisco (-2.5) @ Green Bay (+2.5)
Green Bay is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games with Aaron Rodgers, so an upset at home here certainly isn't out of the question. But what have we seen from Green Bay's defense that suggests that this team can stop Colin Kaepernick, on the ground or through the air? San Francisco has a brutal road ahead with road games potentially here, in Seattle and in Carolina, but at 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS on the road over their last seven road games, the 49ers aren't exactly the Saints away from home. The Packers are the type of team that could get hot and do a little damage with Aaron Rodgers and this veteran-laden group, but I can't pass on the better team when that better team has had so much recent success against this week's opponent.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
OVER/UNDER 46.5: Over (34-24 San Francisco)
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
FINAL RECORD: 41 – 41 – 2 (.500)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!
For past issues of the Dime and all of my current and archived work, visit www.davesdime.com
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