And then there were four teams to play three games to win one silver trophy with a football on its top.
On Sunday, the AFC and NFC titles will be decided. Two weeks later, the winners will square off in Super Bowl 48 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.
Here are a few points to consider as you handicap these games. We have plenty more, and if you want to read the rest, well, you’ll just have to visit the website.
When the Patriots last covered in a conference title game, Ben Roethlisberger was a rookie. Since 2005, New England is a feeble 0-4 against the number in the AFC championship round. In fairness to the Patriots, this includes New England’s outright wins against San Diego (+14) in 2008 and Baltimore (+7) in 2012. What’s more, the Patriots are getting points in the postseason for the first time since the 2007 AFC title game against Indianapolis, when the Colts covered as a 3.5-point favorite in a 38-34 win. Nevertheless, the Pats haven’t beaten the point spread in a conference championship since the 2005 title game, when they rolled to a 41-27 victory at Pittsburgh as 3-point favorites.
Nearly four years have passed since a Peyton Manning-led team covered in a playoff game. Yes, a team quarterbacked by Manning has not beaten the point spread in a playoff game since January 24, 2010, when the Colts (-8) defeated the Jets 30-17 for the AFC title. Two weeks later, the Colts (-4.5) fell 31-17 to New Orleans in Super Bowl 44, the first of three consecutive outright losses by Manning-led teams in the postseason. The following season, the Jets (+2) knocked off Indianapolis 17-16 in the wild-card round. Two years later, Manning was with the Broncos, but the song remained the same, as Baltimore (+9) upset Denver 38-35 in the divisional round. Finally, while the Broncos defeated the Chargers 24-17 on Sunday, they did not cover the 9.5-point spread.
The 49ers have had a remarkable season away from Candlestick Park. In 10 road games in regular season and postseason play, the 49ers are 8-2 straight-up and 7-2-1 against the number. Of course, one of their lone straight-up and point spread losses came at Seattle on September 15. And it was by a huge margin, 29-3, as 3-point dogs.
OVER players are licking their wounds, scrounging for leftover candy canes and turning their attention to college basketball. Remember when the OVER was all the rage? You know, back in early-to-mid December, when OVER hit in 21 of 32 games in Weeks 14 and 15? Well, since then, the UNDER bettors have cashed, cashed and cashed again. In the last 40 games — 32 regular-season contests and the eight playoff games — the UNDER is 27-13 (67.5 percent). The OVER has hit just twice in the postseason — both Colts games. The Colts, alas, are out of the playoffs. Now, if you’ll excuse us, it’s time to start our handicapping of Brown-Yale and Cornell-Columbia.
For the full version of Mike Wilkening’s NFL Audit, head over to The Linemakers on Sporting News.
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