Massey-Peabody, our partners were refer to as The Quants because of their mathematical approach to handicapping games, ended the NFL regular season by winning all four of their official plays in Week 17, but losing three of four Break-Even or Better selections. The Quants finished the regular season 50-29-1 (63.3 percent) on official plays, and 66-45-2 when including their Break-Even or Better picks (54.5 percent).
As of Friday morning, none of their wild-card picks qualify as "official plays", but that could change depending on line moves.
San Francisco is as high as a -3 (-105) road favorite against Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. The game should be about a pick ‘em, according to the Massey-Peabody numbers.
“I looked empirically at how much I should weight games (with Aaron Rodgers and those with a different quarterback playing),” said Rufus Peabody, a pro sports bettor and one-half of the Massey-Peabody duo. “The games with Matt Flynn still do matter some, but they don’t get as much of a weight as the games with Aaron Rodgers in there.
“… San Fran is a slightly better team, but Green Bay is at home, so I think Green Bay is not getting enough respect, according to the oddsmakers and the market.”
At +7, San Diego is also a Break-Even or Better play at Cincinnati, Rufus says.
The Saints are not a Massey-Peabody pick yet, but if the line moves from Philly -2.5 to -3, they become a play.
“I completely disagree with this notion that the Saints are having a problem on the road,” Rufus said. “They have close losses this year to the Panthers and Patriots. … I actually investigated this a little bit further and went back and looked at the Saints in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era … and their numbers are actually slightly better on the road than they are at home.”
Selections, as always, are based solely on Massey-Peabody ratings, and do not include injuries (except those to quarterbacks), weather or matchup factors. Lines are available in Las Vegas as of Friday morning. M-P’s lines are in brackets.
Big Plays (17-9-1 YTD)
• no plays this week
Other Plays (33-20 YTD)
• no plays this week
Break-Even or Better (16-16-1 YTD)
• Kansas City +2.5 at Indianapolis [MP Line: KC -0.5]
• San Diego +7 at Cincinnati [MP Line: SD +6.0]
• Green Bay +3 -120 vs. San Francisco [MP Line: GB -0.1]
Notes: Massey-Peabody makes New Orleans a favorite by 0.3 points over Philadelphia. New Orleans narrowly misses the threshold for a Break-Even or Better play at the current market line of +2.5.
A few games could become "official plays" if the line moves just a bit. New Orleans and Green Bay both become Other Plays at a line of a flat +3. Kansas City becomes an Other Play at +3 -120, and becomes a Big Play at a flat +3.
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