What's tougher – hitting a curveball or hitting a season-long bet on a guy who throws a curveball?
Pitchers can be maddening to try to predict, mainly because there are so many factors out of their control that can ruin a season (and a bet) by mid-May. But just because you can't predict injuries or run support doesn't mean you can't find some value in the pitcher props recently released by the LVH SuperBook.
The staff at Fantasy Source, The Linemakers’ partner here at Sporting News, is here to help.
Here's a statistical breakdown and some recommended plays on pitcher props for the 2014 MLB season, based on Fantasy Source projections:
MOST WINS BY ANY PITCHER: 21 (OVER -130, UNDER +110)
There’s been a league-wide pitching resurgence over the last several seasons, but that hasn't necessarily translated to wins by individual pitchers. Since the start of the 2009 season, only once has a pitcher topped 21 victories (Justin Verlander with 24 in 2011).
There have been six instances of pitchers winning exactly 21 games in that span, including Max Scherzer last year, but it's tough to recommend betting the OVER here, based simply on recent trends. The UNDER is the much safer play, and it’s plus-money to boot.
TOTAL REGULAR-SEASON WINS (All bets at -110)
Homer Bailey (11.5). Bailey won only 11 games last year after posting 13 victories in 2012, but don't let those numbers worry you too much. The 27-year-old righty has made at least 32 starts in each of the past two seasons, and the Reds have won at least 90 games in each of the past two years.
With Bailey showing big improvements last year (more Ks, fewer homers) and netting a huge contract extension this offseason, he seems due to start picking up more wins. The OVER looks good here.
These are just two of the several pitcher props handicapped by Fantasy Source. You can view the entire article here, as well as a breakdown of the hitter props here.
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