THE INTRO
Longtime readers of The Dime know all about the "Consolazio Curse".
Over the last 18 years, the team I have rooted for in the big game is 2-15. The missing game in that stat was last year's, where I wanted the San Francisco 49ers to win but put on a Baltimore jersey and rooted for Baltimore in hopes of using the curse against them. It didn't work. So it's really 2-16 on teams I've wanted to win, but you could have argued 2-16 for teams I've rooted for had San Fran won... so we'll just omit that one from the record.
The two exceptions to the Consolazio Curse came in 2007 and 2011. 2011 was Green Bay's win over Pittsburgh (I'd picked Pittsburgh to win that one, but was rooting for Green Bay).
In 2007, Peyton Manning and the Colts defeated the Chicago Bears. Peyton Manning and I broke our Super Bowl curses together on that day. Again, I'd picked Chicago to win, but was rooting for Indianapolis.
So now Peyton Manning looks to cement his legacy this Sunday, and I look to do something that I haven't done in 18 years.
1. Pick a team to win the Super Bowl.
2. Bet on that team to win the Super Bowl.
3. Root for that team to win the Super Bowl.
...and win.
If I were you, I'd run (not walk) to your nearest sportsbook/bookie and put your life savings on the Seahawks, because there is no way this will end well for me.
But here we go anyway.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 1 - 1 - 0 (.500
)
Without the spread: 2 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Over/Under: 0 - 2 - 0 (.000)
Playoffs
With the spread: 4 - 5 - 1 (.444)
Without the spread: 6 - 4 - 0 (.600)
Over/Under: 5 - 5 - 0 (.500)
Regular Season (Final)
Spread "Picks": 33 - 30 - 1 (.524)
Spread "Leans": 76 - 68 - 6 (.528)
Spread "Coin Flips": 17 - 23 - 0 (.425)
With the spread: 126 - 121 - 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 152 - 103 - 1 (.596)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
San Francisco (+3.5) @ Seattle (-3.5)
THE BAD
New England (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5)
New England (+5.5) @ Denver (-5.5) Over 56.0
San Francisco (+3.5) @ Seattle (-3.5) Under 38.5
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
SUNDAY
Denver (-2.0) @ Seattle (+2.0)
What an awesome Super Bowl this is. This was the one we all predicted at the beginning of the year (maybe some San Francisco picks sprinkled in with Seattle), but these are clearly the best two teams in the NFL. All year long, I've been licking my lips thinking about this potential Super Bowl. I've been saying to everyone (and I believe mentioned once or twice here on the Dime) that no matter who came out of the NFC (Seattle, San Francisco or Carolina) I would bet the hell out of them if they were facing the Broncos. That exact scenario played out perfectly, but after four months of saying that, I've changed my mind.
Why? Denver's defense. The Denver defense has been horrendous all season long, and the Broncos relied on out-shooting opponents throughout the regular season to mask their deficiencies on defense. I knew that come playoff time, against an elite NFC defense like the three mentioned above, the Denver steamroller would be slowed down; and the Broncos defense would not be able to hold its own.
But then the postseason happened. Denver completely shut down San Diego, a team that was red-hot coming into that game. Still, it is only San Diego, right? But the Broncos shut down New England next, and that is where you need to respect the fact that this isn't the same defense we saw in the regular season. Maybe John Fox and Jack Del Rio (excellent defensive coaches) figured it out. Maybe the defense was being lazy during the regular season because it knew Peyton Manning would put up a million points, and is now buckling down a playing 100%. Whatever the case may be, Denver's defense looks like a strength instead of a liability.
Tons of people are on Seattle this week, and fairly so, I believe that they are the best team in the NFL. Most of them are saying "Defense Wins Championships". I agree, but I think that it will be Denver's defense that wins this Championship. Russell Wilson has not been right for weeks, and the pressure of the Super Bowl isn't likely to help. Away from the friendly confines of home and going up against the most productive offense of all time, every mistake will be magnified. I wholeheartedly believe that Seattle's excellent defense will contain Peyton Manning and limit Denver to plenty of field goals. But I also believe that Denver will have a great day on defense too, comfortably honing in on the running game of Wilson and Lynch as the passing game hasn't been too much of a threat. And in an intense, defense driven Super Bowl, Peyton Manning will do just enough to earn his second ring.
Thank you all for reading and for another year of support. No threats of quitting the Dime anymore... I can't quit you guys and girls. I'll see you next year. Enjoy the game and have a great 2014!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
OVER/UNDER 48.5: Under (23-17 Denver)
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
FINAL RECORD: 41 – 41 – 2 (.500)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!
For past issues of the Dime and all of my current and archived work, visit www.davesdime.com
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