Dave's Dime Week 4: Cooling Off

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

You may think from the title of this week's Dime that I'm going to talk about how my picks have cooled off after my super hot start.

But no, I don't care about that. That was never not going to be the case. The cooling off I'm talking about is LITERAL cooling off.

Summer is finally over. I hate the summer with a passion. It is good for only one thing, and that is getting out of school. When you are a grown up person no longer in school, summer is good for absolutely nothing.

"That's not true!" say some of you, "what about the beach, BBQ's, and (insert a bunch of other social events I have no interest in here)?"

I. DON'T. CARE. Keep them all. Give me this comfortable California 70-80 and then give me that comfortable California "cold" of 50-60.

Halloween is a month away. Then we get the holiday season and cold weather and festive coffee and tea drinks and parties and food and presents and so much wonderfulness.

What's that you say? You don't like the holiday season? Well you just got to enjoy your stupid summer while I drowned in my own sweat and hated my life for three months. Forgive me for my lack of empathy.

Weather cools down, football season in full swing, hockey's back, holidays coming up, favorite TV shows returning, decent movies returning to theaters... I can't complain!

Well, until I go 3-10 or something this week. Then I'll complain. But for now, happy thoughts!

THE RECORD

Last Week

Spread "Picks": 3 - 2 - 0 (.600) 

Spread "Leans": 4 - 5 - 0 (.444) 

Spread "Coin Flips": 0 - 1 - 1 (.000)

With the spread: 7 - 8 - 1 (.467)

Without the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)

Season

Spread "Picks": 8 - 5 - 0 (.615) 

Spread "Leans": 13 - 14 - 0 (.481) 

Spread "Coin Flips": 4 - 3 - 1 (.571)

With the spread: 25 - 22 - 1 (.532)

Without the spread: 30 - 18 - 0 (.625)

  

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

(/) Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)

(/) Dallas @ St. Louis (Pick'em)

(/) Washington (+6.5) @ Philadelphia (-6.5)

($) Minnesota (+9.5) @ New Orleans (-9.5)

($) Tennessee (+6.5) @ Cincinnati (-6.5)

($) Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Jacksonville (+7.0)

(/) Chicago (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)

(?) Baltimore (-2.0) @ Cleveland (+2.0) TIE

THE BAD

(/) San Diego (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)

(/) Houston (-2.0) @ NY Giants (+2.0)

(/) Green Bay (+2.5) @ Detroit (-2.5)

($) Oakland (+14.0) @ New England (-14.0)

(/) San Francisco (-3.0) @ Arizona (+3.0)

(?) Denver (+5.0) @ Seattle (-5.0)

(/) Kansas City (+4.0) @ Miami (-4.0)

($) Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)

THE PICKS

($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about

(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards 

(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion

* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick

 

THURSDAY

(/) NY Giants (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)

The Giants have been a popular upset pick this week, getting bet down to +3.0 after opening at +3.5. I'm not really sure why. Yes, the Giants looked good in their home win over the Texans, but the Redskins have looked sensational on offense under Kirk Cousins as well. I'm not quite ready to trust New York on the road yet, especially going up against a team with a red-hot offense.  

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

SUNDAY

(?) Green Bay (-1.5) @ Chicago (+1.5)

I could go either way on this one; current form suggests that the Bears should win this one while history and my opinion of the Packers suggests that Green Bay should. The spread seems to reflect that Vegas doesn't really have any idea, either. I'll go with the Bears to out-shoot the Packers, but I'd just as soon flip a coin.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago

(?) Buffalo (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)

Another "who knows?" type of game, these two teams have taken the same path to this point; start off 2-0 with impressive back-to-back wins and then tank in Week 3 when people are starting to believe in you. One of them will bounce back this week, and I guess I'll go with the home team to be the one to do so.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

(/) Tennessee (+7.5) @ Indianapolis (-7.5)

Tennessee's strong showing in a big win over Kansas City back in Week 1 feels like ancient history now after the Titans suffered back-to-back blowout losses against Dallas and Cincinnati. Going up against another high-powered offense this week, there isn't much reason to expect a change in Tennessee's struggles.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

(/) Carolina (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)

I'm willing to write off last Sunday night's loss to Pittsburgh as a fluke for the Panthers as it was a very uncharacteristic night for the team on both sides of the ball. This game has defensive struggle written all over it and I'm surprised that Carolina is getting 3.5 points, but that can happen when a team gets humiliated in prime time on national television. Not sure which team will win by a field goal, but I'll take a stab on the Panthers. 

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

(/) Detroit (-1.5) @ NY Jets (+1.5)

Chicago and Green Bay have already topped the Jets and made the most out of Geno Smith's mistakes, why shouldn't Detroit be next? The Jets could easily be 3-0 if not for a series of mental mistakes from quarterback and sideline alike, but those mistakes should come to be expected when it comes to the Jets in recent years. Detroit's road struggles also point to a case being made for the Jets, but I just can't take them until they prove they can beat a team with a good passing game this season.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

(/) Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh (-7.5)

I don't go with the "emotional" picks like I used to, but I can't help myself with this one. One team, Thursday night on prime time, gets blasted 56-14. The other, Sunday night on prime time, wins in a 37-19 blowout. Not only is Pittsburgh coming into this game with a shorter week, but how can the Steelers not be mentally chalking this one up as an easy win? Signs point to Tampa Bay manning up and keeping this game close, though I struggle to imagine how they will.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

(/) Miami (-3.5) vs. Oakland (+3.5)

It's quite possible that the team that loses this game over in England will have a new coach by the next time it takes the field here in the states. Miami is the better team on paper, but not by much with the way Tannehill is playing. And while the Oakland Raiders are silently sucking, keeping their dirty laundry in house and coming off of a promising game against New England, Miami is airing out its problems in the media and coming off of two straight ugly losses. Dare I say it, I think Oakland gets its first win of the season this week in London.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

(/) Jacksonville (+13.0) @ San Diego (-13.0)

Blake Bortles showed a ton of promise in the second half against Indianapolis, and makes for an interesting story getting the start this week in San Diego. Interesting in the same way that Derek Carr is interesting. Basically, how will this young rookie quarterback do while surrounded by no talent in games that they have little to no chance of actually winning? So, yeah, maybe he'll cover this spread. Maybe he won't. But he's probably not going to spend very much time in the lead on Sunday.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

(/) Atlanta (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)

This is the closest I came to making a money pick in a week that I don't really love any of the games on the schedule. Atlanta is coming off of a huge blowout win of a bad team. Minnesota is starting a rookie quarterback and has no running game to speak of with Adrian Peterson suspended. I understand that the Falcons are vulnerable on the road, but to the Vikings? I don't know. This game feels way too trappy. But Atlanta should win by a field goal, no?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

(?) Philadelphia (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)

Philadelphia has come back from double-digit deficits in three straight wins while San Francisco has blown double-digit leads in each of its last two games. Should make for one hell of a second half. In actuality, I don't know what to do with this game. I feel like San Francisco is going to win, but I'm not comfortable giving up so many points to a clearly capable Philadelphia side. So forced to choose, I'll take the points.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

(/) New Orleans (-3.0) @ Dallas (+3.0)

The Saints suck on the road. This isn't a myth or a coincidence. 2-8 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 on the road and 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine at home is a little too drastic too ignore. Why do we keep picking this team on the road? Going up against the Cowboys' awful defense, I can't blame you for falling into the trap again. But the Saints couldn't beat Cleveland on the road. Cleveland! Dallas is clicking on offense and can certainly shoot out with the Saints if it comes to that. I'm doing it. I'm taking the Cowboys to win outright!

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

MONDAY

(?) New England (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)

Kansas City has turned things around after an ugly Week 1 loss, while New England has looked awful under a struggling Tom Brady. So what do we do here? I can't pick against New England on Monday Night Football, but I don't feel great about picking a team that's built around one player when that one player isn't playing well. So, I'm stuck. Um... New England I guess?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

 

RECORD: 4 – 10 – 0 (.286)

Why bother? Sigh, here goes...

UCLA -3.0 at ASU - UCLA has struggled this season, and on the road against ASU I'd be all over the Sun Devils if Taylor Kelly were healthy. But with Kelly out, the Sun Devils lose their identity on offense, and I don't think this year's version of the defense is going to lead the team to an upset. My heart will be pulling for ASU, but my head thinks this is a pretty clear pick on the Bruins.

Maryland +4.0 at Indiana - With Indiana coming in off of one of the biggest wins in school history, this one has "let down" written all over it. Maryland has looked solid through the first four games of the season on offense, and should be able to shoot out with Indiana and cover the spread or even win outright.

Notre Dame -9.0 at Syracuse - Notre Dame's toughest games are still ahead, but through three games the Fighting Irish have looked very sharp on both sides of the ball. Coming off of a bye week, its hard to see a slip-up coming against a fairly week Syracuse side.

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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