THE INTRO
This has been the year of success for many in my circle!
My father, after decades of hard work, has earned his retirement!
Sam, my best friend and roommate, is the top ticket salesman for the LA Galaxy, who could be on their way to an MLS Title!
Gershom and Naima, high school sweethearts, tied the knot in a beautiful wedding this summer!
Jeff, as you hopefully read/watched in the Thursday Dime, is following his dream of working in politics and got an amazing 15 minutes of fame for his deep WSOP run!
Marcelo, after years of grinding out a job he hated, left it behind and found work in the field he loves at the NFL Network!
Eric, an excellent writer, just got his name on the cover of Sports Illustrated for an article he wrote on Anze Kopitar!
KT just won $15,000 by taking a deal with seven players left in a poker tournament!
The Kings won the Stanley Cup!
I.........
Ummm... I.....
Hmm. Umm. Let's see. I... hmm.
I... still have three months left to do something of note!
Well, technically, I have 88 days, 20 hours and 31 minutes left... but who's counting, right?!?
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Spread "Leans": 5 - 4 - 0 (.556)
Spread "Coin Flips": 1 - 3 - 0 (.250)
With the spread: 6 - 7 - 0 (.462)
Without the spread: 6 - 7 - 0 (.462)
Season
Spread "Picks": 8 - 5 - 0 (.615)
Spread "Leans": 18 - 18 - 0 (.500)
Spread "Coin Flips": 5 - 6 - 1 (.455)
With the spread: 31 - 29 - 1 (.517)
Without the spread: 36 - 25 - 0 (.590)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(?) Buffalo (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
(/) Tennessee (+7.5) @ Indianapolis (-7.5)
(/) Detroit (-1.5) @ NY Jets (+1.5)
(/) Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh (-7.5)
(/) Jacksonville (+13.0) @ San Diego (-13.0)
(/) New Orleans (-3.0) @ Dallas (+3.0)
THE BAD
(/) NY Giants (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
(?) Green Bay (-1.5) @ Chicago (+1.5)
(/) Carolina (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)
(/) Miami (-3.5) vs. Oakland (+3.5)
(/) Atlanta (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
(?) Philadelphia (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)
(?) New England (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(?) Minnesota (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
SUNDAY
(/) Chicago (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
I'd love to write off the last TWO games as flukes for the Panthers, which they very well might be, but the results in those games have been troubling. If Carolina's defense isn't playing at its absolute best, the offense won't be able to win many games for the Panthers as Cam Newton doesn't have much of a supporting cast to work with. As such, I've gotta go with the Bears and will proceed with caution on the Panthers until they get back on track.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago
(?) Cleveland (+2.0) @ Tennessee (-2.0)
Who knows, and who cares? Two of the NFL's worst teams square off in one of those games that will be skipped right over by 95% of football fans. Even fantasy football fans don't have much to see here. Oh, right, I have to make a pick. Um, Tennessee, at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
(/) St. Louis (+6.5) @ Philadelphia (-6.5)
Will St. Louis's defense, having had a bye to study and a great prototype laid out by the 49ers, have an answer for Philadelphia's offense? Perhaps. But even if it does, do the Rams have enough on offense to do anything against the Eagles? I kind of doubt it. Wouldn't be shocked by a close game, but a touchdown victory seems doable for the Eagles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
(?) Atlanta (+4.0) @ NY Giants (-4.0)
I can't unsee what I saw last week, and that was Atlanta getting dismantled by one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Minnesota looking hopeless on offense on Thursday night didn't help, either. I know that Bridgewater is better than Ponder, but still. All of my hate towards the Giants and their offense might have been too soon considering the consecutively strong efforts they've put together. But am I ready to give up four points yet? Not really. But, forced to choose, I guess I must.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
($) Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ New Orleans (-10.0)
Yes, the Saints may have real problems this season. But until they lose at home, where they are 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in their last nine games, I'm not hitting the panic button. And they'll have plenty of chances to lose at home against some very tough opponents this season. Fortunately for the Saints, this isn't one of those tough opponents. This is a bad team coming in off of a huge win while the Saints come in off of a really bad loss. I'm sensing a blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
(/) Houston (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
This might just be one of those silly gut picks, but from what we've seen in the Tony Romo era, isn't this EXACTLY the type of game the Cowboys lose? Flying high after three straight wins including coming back from down 21 and crushing the New Orleans Saints, Dallas dangles the carrot to get fans excited again when they came into the seasons with no expectations... only to lose a game like this. Houston has been solid this season so I'd like the Texans at +6.5 even without the gut pick, but with it, I feel even better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston
(/) Buffalo (+6.5) @ Detroit (-6.5)
Buffalo turns to Kyle Orton because it can't get any worse than it was against EJ Manual. Or can it? We're about to find out. Either way, Detroit has enough fire power on offense and Buffalo has enough recent history losing on the road to make this game a pretty obvious lean in Detroit's favor.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit
(/) Baltimore (+3.5) @ Indianapolis (-3.5)
Andrew Luck is on fire, but going up against Tennessee and Jacksonville can have that effect on a great quarterback. What about the Ravens? Baltimore has done a masterful job of playing through the Ray Rice fiasco with blowout wins over Pittsburgh and Carolina and a strong showing against a great Cincinnati team as well. I'm sold on the Ravens and am still on the fence about the Colts, so I'll ask Indianapolis to "show me" and go the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
($) Pittsburgh (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
When you get absolutely humiliated at home by an awful team like Pittsburgh did last week against Tampa Bay, you can't ask for a much better draw in your following game than the worst team in the NFL. Jacksonville looks a bit better under Blake Bortles, but an 0-4 team losing by an average of 23.5 every week isn't going to do much to stop a very angry Pittsburgh team on Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
($) Arizona (+7.5) @ Denver (-7.5)
Arizona is fantastic, especially on defense. The win over San Diego at the beginning of the season looks even more impressive with how good the Chargers have revealed themselves to be, and holding the Giants and 49ers to 14 points each is nothing to sneeze at either. Denver has proven to be vulnerable against elite defenses in the Peyton Manning era, and the Cardinals at this point have to be put in that bracket. Peyton Manning will get touchdown pass No. 500 this week, but 501-504 will be tough to come by against a Cardinals team that should keep it close to the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) Kansas City (+5.0) @ San Francisco (-5.0)
San Francisco is a really strange team to figure out right now both on and off the field, and the Alex Smith coming in for revenge angle is pretty cool. But I think it's more likely that Harbaugh knows Smith's limitations and is able to game plan well enough for him to come away with a big enough win to cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
($) NY Jets (+6.5) @ San Diego (-6.5)
Don't look now, but I think the Chargers are legit. Philip Rivers is playing great, and that's really bad news for us San Diego and Rivers haters out there. New York is totally one dimensional on offense, and Rex Ryan's loyalty to failing starting quarterbacks may forever doom him as a head coach. Hard to go any way but San Diego here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
(/) Cincinnati (-1.0) @ New England (+1.0)
I wrote a game breakdown for NE at KC after I'd sent out the Dime and realized that Kansas City was the obvious pick in that game. Oops. No rushing the Dime is the moral of the story! As for this week, I am a bit concerned that the Patriots will be out for revenge and out to make a statement this week at home. But the Bengals are coming off of the bye and are quite frankly, at this moment in time, the better team. So I'm taking them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
MONDAY
($) Seattle (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
Seattle coming off of a bye is very, very dangerous. Seattle coming off of a bye against a team that is clearly over-matched on both sides of the ball? Seems like an easy enough decision here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 7 – 10 – 0 (.414)
Okay, after a 3-0 week last week I'm fired up to get back to .500 this week! 5-2 will do the trick!
Mississippi State -2.5 over Texas A&M - On paper, this looks like a fairly even matchup that could easily go either way. I give Texas A&M the slight edge on offense and Mississippi State the slight edge on defense. But in this even matchup, one team is at home in what will be an extremely fired up SEC enviornment. That same team had a bye week to prepare for this game while Texas A&M was busy being pushed to the brink by Arkansas. Mississippi State should be able to get it done on Saturday.
East Carolina -41.0 over SMU - SMU has been outscored 205 to 12 this season and is beyond hopeless at this point. With no direction and very little talent on either side of the ball after June Jones' midseason resignation, SMU is ripe for the slaughtering. I almost shied away from this play due to the enormous number, but I'd be too annoyed by the 56-3 final this game will produce to leave it off of my board.
Alabama -4.5 at Ole Miss - To be honest, I'm stunned by this line. Alabama is 10-0 in its last 10 games against Ole Miss and has won this game by double-digits each of the last five years. That all comes to an end this year because Ole Miss has proven itself so far this season against... who, exactly? The Rebels have enough talent to hang with Alabama at home, but this line should be a lot closer to Mississippi +8 or 9 in my opinion, so I can't pass on it here.
Oregon State -6.0 at Colorado - The Beavers looked bad last week at USC, but that wasn't a huge surprise going up against an angry Trojans team that was coming off of a bye week at home. Colorado's pitiful defense will do the Buffaloes in even if they do manage to hang enough points to keep the game close for a while.
Rutgers -2.0 over Michigan - How can we pass on fading this disaster situation in Michigan? Brady Hoke has completely lost this team, and he and every player on the team knows that he's just a sitting duck at this point. After losing back to back games at home to Utah and Minnesota, what faith can we have in the Wolverines to solve things on the road? Rutgers isn't all that strong, but even a decent effort will be enough to beat the flailing Wolverines at this point.
USC -12.0 over ASU - ASU's defense and missing star quarterback are reason enough to consider USC at home, but there is also a major revenge angle to consider here after the Trojans were completely humiliated in Tempe last year in a 62-41 loss. Even without Kelly, ASU has enough firepower on offense to keep this one close; but I think the Trojans will eventually pull away and cover the spread.
LSU at Auburn UNDER 58 - Each of the last 16 games between these two SEC rivals have gone under 58 points. Brandon Harris looks like a potential star for LSU, but he is a true freshman making his first start in a hostile SEC environment. LSU was one of the only teams in the nation able to slow Auburn down last year holding the Tigers to only 21 points. One way or another, this one should stay under 58 points.
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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