THE INTRO
Last week was one of those weekends that made me want to quit the Dime completely.
Ironic, of course, that overall it was actually a really solid week from the picks perspective. 10-4-1 straight up and 9-5-1 against the spread isn't bad at all!
But it was the games that mattered to me most on Sunday that were the ones that went all wrong.
Geno Smith's last-second pick six killed one of my money picks and lost me a bit of cash in the process.
Dallas's win in Seattle killed my survivor pool after I had opted to go with Seattle over Baltimore, who of course cruised to an easy blowout victory.
And of course my Raiders, who teased me with their best game of the season and a shot at beating one of the league's top teams this year, blew it in the closing moments.
All of this coming after yet another losing week of college football picks, which I'm usually excellent at.
Just a reminder of how little I enjoy football these days. My team hasn't been relevant or given me more than a glimmer of hope in my entire adult life. The dream I once had to get into sports media isn't really one that I have any more. So why the heck do I do this thing again?
I know, I know. Too depressing. But alas, I guess I have the "I should quit the Dime" epiphany every year, and every year I keep coming back for more.
So enough with the complaining; onward we march. Hopefully I'll be less cranky next week!
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 3 - 2 - 0 (.600)
Spread "Leans": 4 - 3 - 1 (.571)
Spread "Coin Flips": 2 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
With the spread: 9 - 5 - 1 (.643)
Without the spread: 10 - 4 - 1 (.714)
Season
Spread "Picks": 14 - 9 - 0 (.609)
Spread "Leans": 23 - 26 - 2 (.469)
Spread "Coin Flips": 9 - 7 - 1 (.563)
With the spread: 46 - 42 - 3 (.523)
Without the spread: 55 - 35 - 1 (.611)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
($) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
(?) Jacksonville (+6.0) @ Tennessee (-6.0)
($) Baltimore (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
(/) Detroit (+1.0) @ Minnesota (-1.0)
(/) Carolina (+6.5) @ Cincinnati (-6.5)
(?) Chicago (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
(/) Dallas (+8.0) @ Seattle (-8.0)
($) Washington (+3.5) @ Arizona (-3.5)
(/) San Francisco (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
(/) Green Bay (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0) TIE
THE BAD
($) Denver (-9.0) @ NY Jets (+9.0)
(/) New England (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
(/) Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Cleveland (-1.5)
($) San Diego (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)
(/) NY Giants (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(?) NY Jets (+9.5) @ New England (-9.5)
Made this pick on Twitter: "Dave's Dime TNF Pick: NYJ +9.5 over NE. No real opinion at all on this one, but in picking every game you've gotta pick coin flips too!" (Link)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
SUNDAY
(/) Atlanta (+6.5) @ Baltimore (-6.5)
Atlanta simply doesn't play defense, making the Falcons a very difficult team to pick week in and week out. Hell, when you give up over 40 points to an Adrian Peterson-less Minnesota Vikings team, that pretty much sums it up. The Falcons could end up shooting out with Baltimore to win or cover, but I'll take my chances that the Ravens get a stop or two.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(?) Tennessee (+5.0) @ Washington (-5.0)
Don't have the slightest idea on this one between two underachieving teams. I think the Redskins are the better team, and they are at home, but do I like them by five points? My model spit out a score of 28 - 28 (another tie?!?), which means little other than maybe I'll go with the Titans with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington
($) Seattle (-6.0) @ St. Louis (+6.0)
One loss at home to a team that is seemingly actually really good this season, and suddenly everyone seems to be done with the Seahawks. Not so fast. No way that this team loses two straight games, especially against a quarterback that this defense should eat up and spit out. Seattle should have no trouble winning this game by double digits in my opinion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(/) Cleveland (-5.0) @ Jacksonville (+5.0)
I'm still not quite sure what to make of the Browns; the personnel they are marching out on the field should not be winning games, but lo and behold, it is. And with Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay up next, there is no reason to expect the winning to stop any time soon. Brian Hoyer has this offense working, and it is certainly good enough to take care of the Jaguars.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland
($) Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
Sometimes you just have to stop and wonder how a team can be so lucky as to have Peyton Manning for so long, lose him for one year and be so bad that you end up with the worst record in football on the year that Andrew Luck enters the draft. It really is amazing. Luck has this offense clicking on all cylinders, and since the Bengals have seemingly forgotten how to play defense over the last few weeks, this should be a pretty easy one for the Colts at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
(/) Minnesota (+5.5) @ Buffalo (-5.5)
I hate giving up 5.5 points here, but this is a game that Buffalo should definitely be able to win by a touchdown or more. Minnesota's offense is just so bad that it takes all of the attention away from a defense that has improved quite a bit from last season. Maybe that defense will keep it close, but I'm seeing a 20 - 10 type of game for the Bills.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
(/) Miami (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Miami just isn't a very good football team. A win against the Raiders in England saved Joe Philbin his job, and a good effort against Green Bay (an offense he knew well after running it for years) kept the hot seat from scorching a little while longer. But at the end of the day, the defense is likely to struggle against an offense like Chicago's on the road, and the Dolphins haven't proven to be a team that can dig deep and find wins. Not that the Bears are the mentally toughest team in the world, but you get the idea.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
(/) New Orleans (+2.0) @ Detroit (-2.0)
My model spit out a score of 28 - 17 in Detroit's favor in this game, and that seems extremely reasonable. Detroit's defense is playing great, and New Orleans' road struggles are well documented. Actually, the Saints haven't even been too good at home this year. But for whatever reason, every time I look at this game I keep seeing it as a Saints win. Perhaps out of desperation, perhaps thanks to a bye week of planning, I'm going to go with my gut and trust the Saints on the road, which I'm sure I'll regret.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
(/) Carolina (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Carolina's once proud defense has been getting torched for about a month now. Going up against one of the most surgical quarterbacks in the NFL, this looks like a recipe for disaster. The Packers are playing great and should continue to do so with another win on Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
($) Kansas City (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5)
San Diego is the real deal this season. Even in a week that it didn't have its best against Oakland it still found a way to win. When Philip Rivers is playing at this level, the Chargers have the ability to beat anyone. Andy Reid has a history of wizardry coming off of the bye week so maybe I am making a mistake going against him, but back at home I think San Diego will pick up another win and cover this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
($) Arizona (-3.5) @ Oakland (+3.5)
Maybe Tony Sparano taking over and getting the effort he got out of the Raiders last week is a turning point for the team. I certainly hope that it is. With that said, it still is what it is; a bad team with an awful defense. Not only will Arizona's offense have a productive day, but the defense should do a better job of solving the Raiders than the Chargers were able to do. Maybe I'm wrong and the Raiders come out and pull off the upset this week... but I doubt it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
($) NY Giants (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
Okay, I'm sold on Dallas. With that said, this is a perfect letdown spot. Coming in off of such a massive "turning point" win in Seattle while the Giants are coming in off of an embarrassing shutout blowout loss? All of the emotional signs point to the Giants coming out a lot more desperate this week, which should translate to at least a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
(/) San Francisco (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)
This should be a great game between two of the best teams in the NFL. I wouldn't be shocked by a comfortable Denver win, but I lean more towards this being a close game. And really, with the exception of Denver's big win over Arizona, all of its games have been close; if not for Geno Smith's gift wrapped pick six last week, four of Denver's five games would have been decided by a touchdown or less. So I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
MONDAY
(?) Houston (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
I'm not sure what I'll be doing on Monday night yet, but being parked in front of a TV to watch this game isn't likely it. I actually think that Houston is the slightly better team this season, but I'm not sure if I like them to go on the road and get the win against a Pittsburgh team that should be angry and ready to bounce back after an ugly loss to Cleveland. So I guess I'm going with Pittsburgh, but I'm not all that excited about it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 12 – 18 – 1 (.400)
(No Picks This Week)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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