THE INTRO
I am off to Vegas!
In mere moments after sending out this email, I will be hopping in a car to Vegas with a few friends of mine for one of those 24 hour hit-and-run type trips.
The plan is to get in this morning, get some rest, then wake up tomorrow and win a whole bunch of money on college football, horse racing, blackjack, craps and more. Then get out of town before giving it all back!
Of course, plans like this can sometimes result in going broke. Which at least means the quick exit avoids any of those depressing trips to the ATM!
So wish me luck, fellow gamblers. Hopefully I will return with stories of winnings and infinite riches.
Hell, honestly, hopefully I just return with what I left with.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 2 - 3 - 0 (.400)
Spread "Leans": 3 - 4 - 0 (.429)
Spread "Coin Flips": 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
With the spread: 8 - 7 - 0 (.533)
Without the spread: 10 - 5 - 0 (.667)
Season
Spread "Picks": 16 - 12 - 0 (.571)
Spread "Leans": 26 - 30 - 2 (.464)
Spread "Coin Flips": 12 - 7 - 1 (.632)
With the spread: 54 - 49 - 3 (.524)
Without the spread: 65 - 40 - 1 (.619)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(?) NY Jets (+9.5) @ New England (-9.5)
(/) Atlanta (+6.5) @ Baltimore (-6.5)
(?) Tennessee (+5.0) @ Washington (-5.0)
($) Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
(/) New Orleans (+2.0) @ Detroit (-2.0)
(/) Carolina (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
($) Arizona (-3.5) @ Oakland (+3.5)
(?) Houston (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
THE BAD
($) Seattle (-6.0) @ St. Louis (+6.0)
(/) Cleveland (-5.0) @ Jacksonville (+5.0)
(/) Minnesota (+5.5) @ Buffalo (-5.5)
(/) Miami (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
($) Kansas City (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5)
($) NY Giants (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
(/) San Francisco (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(/) San Diego (+9.0) at Denver (-9.0)
"For the Dime tonight, I'm taking San Diego +9 at Denver. Rivers should be able to do enough to keep the game within a touchdown." (Tweet)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver (WIN)
SUNDAY
(/) Detroit (-3.5) vs. Atlanta (+3.5)
England should be treated to plenty of offense in this one, at least on the Detroit side with Atlanta's invisible defense in the mix. I'm not sure whether it will end up being a shootout or a blowout, but either way, I like the Lions' chances of making more stops.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit
(?) St. Louis (+7.0) at Kansas City (-7.0)
Both of these teams are really hard to figure out. Austin Davis keeps showing flashes of brilliance and could keep this game close enough for the Rams to get a cover, or even an upset. But on the other hand, the Chiefs have been deceptively tough this year with close games against Denver and San Francisco and wins over New England and San Diego. I have no idea which way this will go, so I'm just guessing it's a close one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(/) Houston (-3.0) at Tennessee (+3.0)
Tennessee handing the team over to Zach Mettenberger is interesting. Mettenberger doesn't really have much to work with, and Houston strikes me as one of those teams this year that will lose to superior teams and beat inferior teams with some consistency. That makes Texans games easy to pick; they are the better team in this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
(?) Minnesota (+2.5) at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Two awful teams battling it out for... well nothing, really. The edge that Tampa Bay's offense has is negated by how awful its defense is. I lean towards the Buccaneers simply because they are at home, but I won't really try to make odds and end of this snoozer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
(/) Seattle (-5.0) at Carolina (+5.0)
Seattle's air of invincibility on defense is no longer there. But even still, its defense has been nearly as hopeless as the Panthers defense, which has given up 37 or more points in four of its last five games. How can you even consider taking a team with a defense playing that bad? Russell Wilson should have a field day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(/) Baltimore (-2.0) at Cincinnati (+2.0)
I remember when the Bengals were 3-0 and I was thinking "damn, you made a great bet on them to win the Super Bowl at long shot odds!" Three games, an 0-2-1 record and 107 points surrendered later, and I'm not so sure about that. Perhaps the Bengals will bounce back this week at home where they play well, but in current form I have to go with the Ravens to pick up the road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(/) Miami (-6.0) at Jacksonville (+6.0)
Jacksonville picked up its first win of the season! Good work, Jags. Unfortunately, I don't quite think you are ready for a winning streak yet. Miami has played well over its last three games, and shouldn't have too much trouble focusing up and winning this one by a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
(/) Chicago (+5.5) at New England (-5.5)
I guess you have to go with New England, right? The Patriots have had a bit of extra rest and the Bears seem to be going through their annual unraveling. Of course, this usually means the Bears will lose by three or four and screw me over on a backdoor cover because the Patriots never cover when I pick them, but what the hell.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
(/) Buffalo (+3.0) at NY Jets (-3.0)
Sure, the Jets are terrible, but Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady wasn't exactly the easiest list of quarterbacks to start the season against. Kyle Orton? With two back-up running backs? If the Jets can't win this one at home, I may not pick them again this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets
(?) Philadelphia (+1.5) at Arizona (-1.5)
This should be a great game between two of the NFC's top teams, and one that I'm more interested in watching than trying to predict. I could easily see it going either way, and so can sportsbooks as indicated by the betting line. Forced to take a side, I'll go with the Eagles' offense giving Philadelphia the slight upper hand.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia
(/) Oakland (+7.0) at Cleveland (-7.0)
Who knows with two awful teams like this? Cleveland looked like a lock to start off the season 6-2 with Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay on deck, but instead laid a huge egg in an ugly loss to Jacksonville. I think the Raiders have to be looking at this game as a legitimate chance of getting their first win and should be fired up with their best effort. That effort may or may not be enough, but giving up seven points to take the Browns? I'll take a stab on the Raiders instead.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland
($) Indianapolis (-3.5) at Pittsburgh (+3.5)
Indianapolis is a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread over its last five games and looks to have all of the makings of a legitimate contender. Pittsburgh is an inconsistent and mediocre middle of the pack team. Even in Pittsburgh, I like Indy's chances of winning this game by four points or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
($) Green Bay (+2.5) at New Orleans (-2.5)
Generally, picking against the New Orleans Saints at home is a really bad idea. And who knows, maybe it still is. But while it is easy enough to write the Saints four losses off as "road struggles", it isn't like the Saints have looked all that great at home either in a 20-9 win over Minnesota and an overtime win over Tampa Bay. The Saints have done nothing this season to suggest that they can beat a team of Green Bay's caliber, so I'll happily take the hot Packers as an underdog.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
MONDAY
(/) Washington (+10.0) at Dallas (-10.0)
At this point, the Cowboys appear to be the real deal on both sides of the ball, and we might as well back them until they give us a reason not to. Not that a team needs to be the real deal to beat the Redskins this year. Maybe Colt McCoy will do better than Kirk Cousins, but it shouldn't matter much either way with the way the Cowboys are rolling.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 12 – 18 – 1 (.400)
Kansas State -10.0 over Texas - Texas's offensive outburst against Iowa State doesn't have me believing that this team has suddenly figured it out on offense. Kansas State's defense has been great all season, and against an offense like Texas's the Wildcats should have an easy time keeping their score low and winning by double digits.
Memphis -23.0 at SMU - Southern Methodist got its only cover of the season last time I picked against them, and I'm hoping that doesn't happen again. But going against the worst team in the nation that loses by an average of 41.5 points per game, I'll take a shot on a pretty solid Memphis team at only -23.
Michigan State -17.0 over Michigan - Michigan State's offense is rolling, and the Wolverines have been a punching bag all season long. The Spartans won't show mercy to their hated in-state rival and should win this one by three touchdowns or more.
TCU -23.0 over Texas Tech - In a very similar looking game, TCU stomped Oregon State 41-9 at home last week. Texas Tech has an offense that can shoot out, but on the road against TCU where the Horned Frogs have been extremely tough this season, I expect this to be a lopsided game.
Ole Miss -3.5 at LSU - This is Ole Miss's toughest road test of the season, and maybe I'm underestimating the Tigers here. But with the way Ole Miss's defense is playing, I just don't see this struggling LSU offense having much success. Tasked with winning by only four points, Mississippi should prove it is legit this week with a statement road win.
Ohio State -13.5 at Penn State - Since being disregarded by the nation after an early-season loss to Virginia Tech, Ohio State has done nothing but steamroll opponents with one of the best offenses in the country. Penn State doesn't have the firepower to hang with the Buckeyes for long.
USC PK at Utah - I'm just not a believer in Utah. The win over UCLA was impressive, but that had more to do in my opinion with UCLA's makeshift offensive line than it did the Utes being a great team. Idaho State, Fresno State, Michigan, Oregon State (in 2OT)? Not the most impressive of resumes. The Utes can prove me wrong on Saturday night, but I don't think they will.
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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