THE INTRO
8-0 straight up, 7-0-1 against the spread.
Those were my numbers heading into the afternoon games last week. Five games away from a perfect day!
But like so many perfect games and no-hitters before it, it wasn't meant to be. All three afternoon games went the wrong way against the spread, and San Francisco and Denver lost outright to cost me a 13-0 week.
Playing in a poker tournament Saturday night, I had pocket jacks in my hand and was all-in on a flop of Jack - Nine - Three; I had the best possible hand with three jacks!
But of course, I was up against Queen-Ten, and he hit an eight to catch a straight and knock me out.
I've been at all of this long enough to know not to start celebrating early. Which is more than Utah's Kaelin Clay can say (Video if you missed it).
I kind of hate this week's schedule, so I put off picking it as long as I could. Hours before kickoff, I've officially run out of stalling time. So here goes.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 3 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Spread "Leans": 5 - 3 - 0 (.625)
Spread "Coin Flips": 2 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
With the spread: 10 - 3 - 0 (.769)
Without the spread: 11 - 2 - 0 (.846)
Season
Spread "Picks": 19 - 14 - 0 (.576)
Spread "Leans": 34 - 40 - 2 (.459)
Spread "Coin Flips": 14 - 10 - 1 (.583)
With the spread: 67 - 64 - 3 (.511)
Without the spread: 84 - 49 - 1 (.632)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) New Orleans (-3.0) at Carolina (+3.0)
($) Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Houston (+1.5)
(?) Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ Cleveland (-7.0)
(/) NY Jets (+8.5) @ Kansas City (-8.5)
(?) San Diego (+2.0) @ Miami (-2.0)
($) Arizona (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
(/) Washington @ Minnesota (Pick'em)
(/) Baltimore (-2.0) @ Pittsburgh (+2.0)
($) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ NY Giants (+3.0)
(/) Jacksonville (+10.0) @ Cincinnati (-10.0) TIE
THE BAD
(/) St. Louis (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5)
(/) Denver (-3.0) @ New England (+3.0)
(/) Oakland (+14.0) @ Seattle (-14.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(/) Cleveland (+6.5) @ Cincinnati (-6.5)
"Dave's Dime Pick: Cinci -6.5. Bengals are money at home, and Browns are due to come back down to earth." (Tweet)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati (LOSS)
SUNDAY
(?) Kansas City (+1.5) @ Buffalo (-1.5)
I think Kansas City is the better team, and the Chiefs are more than capable of winning a road game like this. But with the Chiefs coming off of three straight wins and now traveling up east to play an early game against a team coming off of a bye week... this just feels like a letdown spot in the making.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
(/) Miami (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
This should be a great game between two teams that have won each of their last three games. Believe it or not, I'm more of a believer in Miami at this point; Tannehill is playing great, and the defense has done well against tough opponents lately. Detroit's defense has also been great, and I see this being a close game right down to the finish; but I'll take the points and my only outright upset of the week in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami
(/) Dallas (-7.5) @ Jacksonville (+7.5)
Tony Romo's return will be the main story line here, but DeMarco Murray should also have a field day against Jacksonville's awful defense. Dallas has lost a couple of games in a row and needs a win to stop the bleeding, and wins don't come much easier than they do against Jacksonville.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
(/) San Francisco (+6.0) @ New Orleans (-6.0)
Maybe San Francisco gets back on track this week in a game that the team badly needs. But New Orleans time and time again proves that no matter what the circumstances are, you can't pick against the Saints at home. The team has been playing a lot better over the last month or so anyway, and the 49ers pass defense has struggled against some of the better attacks it has faced. As such, I'm going with the Saints.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
(/) Tennessee (+10.0) @ Baltimore (-10.0)
Baltimore has lost two straight road games against division rivals. Now, the Ravens return home (where they are 26-2 straight up in their last 28 as a favorite) in need of a win against one of the worst teams in the NFL. No need to over-complicate this one, right?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(/) Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ NY Jets (+3.5)
This one is trap-game central. Pittsburgh riding high after two blowout wins over two contenders in the AFC is on the road against the lowly and pathetic Jets who have lost eight straight games. And the Steelers are only -3.5! In past years I would have been all over the Jets. But I just can't bring myself to take a team that has been so consistently bad on both sides of the ball. This will probably be one of those games that Pittsburgh comes out flat and looks bad all game and still wins by six anyway.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
(/) Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
Atlanta really shouldn't be a road favorite anywhere with the way that they've played this season. But if you can't come off of a bye week and beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the talent you have on that roster...
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
(/) Denver (-12.5) @ Oakland (+12.5)
In addition to crushing my soul and ruining my enjoyment of football, the Raiders have also managed to screw me over on the Dime fairly regularly by covering spreads when I pick against them. This week, I have a gut feeling they'll grab a backdoor cover, so I'll take the points and I'm sure they'll lose by 35 or something. Sigh.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) St. Louis (+7.0) @ Arizona (-7.0)
Dating back to last season, Arizona is 14-3 straight up and 12-4-1 against the spread. In addition to being a really solid team, the Cardinals have been consistent as well and bring their best effort every week. St. Louis can be tricky, but the Cardinals should grab a win and cover if they play their usual game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
(/) NY Giants (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
So the Giants have been terrible over the last few weeks with three straight double-digit losses, and now they are tasked with going on the road into one of the toughest buildings in the NFL to play the Seahawks. The spread makes sense, but considering the fact that the Seahawks haven't beaten a team by more than 10 in seven straight games and haven't been particularly sharp on either side of the ball this season, at what point do we stop waiting for them to "snap out of it" and just accept that they aren't playing well until they do so?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(/) Chicago (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
I've had this as a Green Bay win by 7-10 points all week long, so the line move up to 7.5 makes me downgrade this one to just a lean instead of a pick. With both teams coming off byes and fighting for playoff spots, motivation and fatigue won't be issues. It should just come down to which team is better, and I believe that the home team has a pretty clear edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
MONDAY
(?) Carolina (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
On the one hand, Carolina is awful. On the other, Philadelphia has been playing mostly close games all season long, and one half-start doesn't make Mark Sanchez the most improved and proven quarterback in the NFL. I actually think Sanchez will do well, but do I want to give up 7.5 points here? I'd just as soon skip this game completely, but forced to choose I guess I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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