THE INTRO
Thank goodness I got out of Vegas before football started on Sunday. If I hadn't, the money I'd survived Saturday with would have been long gone in the sportsbook.
3-12 against the spread. 3-12! When you are on the brink of quitting, nothing cheers you up and gets you more excited than a 3-12 week!
On the bright side, it's COLD. Well, cold by Los Angeles standards, anyway. This means that the holidays are right around the corner, I don't have to be hot and miserable all the time, and that I can actually put my comforter back on my bed!
If I had to deal with the summer heat AND football at the same time, my head would explode. Thanks to the cold weather, I can keep this train wreck going a little while longer...
For your amusement.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 0 - 2 - 0 (.000)
Spread "Leans": 3 - 7 - 0 (.300)
Spread "Coin Flips": 0 - 3 - 0 (.000)
With the spread: 3 - 12 - 0 (.200)
Without the spread: 8 - 7 - 0 (.533)
Season
Spread "Picks": 16 - 14 - 0 (.533)
Spread "Leans": 29 - 37 - 2 (.439)
Spread "Coin Flips": 12 - 10 - 1 (.545)
With the spread: 57 - 61 - 3 (.483)
Without the spread: 73 - 47 - 1 (.608)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Houston (-3.0) at Tennessee (+3.0)
(/) Miami (-6.0) at Jacksonville (+6.0)
(/) Chicago (+5.5) at New England (-5.5)
THE BAD
(/) San Diego (+9.0) at Denver (-9.0)
(/) Detroit (-3.5) vs. Atlanta (+3.5)
(?) St. Louis (+7.0) at Kansas City (-7.0)
(?) Minnesota (+2.5) at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
(/) Seattle (-5.0) at Carolina (+5.0)
(/) Baltimore (-2.0) at Cincinnati (+2.0)
(/) Buffalo (+3.0) at NY Jets (-3.0)
(?) Philadelphia (+1.5) at Arizona (-1.5)
(/) Oakland (+7.0) at Cleveland (-7.0)
($) Indianapolis (-3.5) at Pittsburgh (+3.5)
($) Green Bay (+2.5) at New Orleans (-2.5)
(/) Washington (+10.0) at Dallas (-10.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(/) New Orleans (-3.0) at Carolina (+3.0)
"Dave's Dime Thursday Pick: Going with New Orleans -3. They never seem to win on the road, but last game might have been a corner turn." (Tweet)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans (WIN)
SUNDAY
($) Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Houston (+1.5)
As I was saying last week, Houston has beaten every bad team it has played and lost to every good team it has played. Philadelphia wou4ld definitely qualify as a good team, so let's not overthink this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
(/) Jacksonville (+10.0) @ Cincinnati (-10.0)
Here's another one not worth overthinking. Cincinnati, as illustrated in coming back from the dead to beat Baltimore last week, is money at home. Sure, Jacksonville could make this a game; but the Bengals at home should be able to beat the league's worst team (or second worst, thanks Oakland) by a couple of touchdowns.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
(?) Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ Cleveland (-7.0)
Tampa Bay is just one of those odd teams that teams that is going to lose by 3 or lose by 30. Which will it be this week? Against Cleveland, I lean towards the close game variety.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland
(/) NY Jets (+8.5) @ Kansas City (-8.5)
The Jets can't possibly be any worse with Mike Vick under center than they were with Geno Smith. But will they be much better? It's possible, but Kansas City has been deceptively solid all season long and the Jets haven't given us any reason to trust them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(?) San Diego (+2.0) @ Miami (-2.0)
I'm still pretty high on San Diego, and I was planning on taking the Chargers all week. But Miami has been solid of late, and a battered up San Diego team is traveling across the country to play in an early game. It's a close call, but I'll go with Miami to edge out its third straight win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
($) Arizona (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Even if Tony Romo were playing healthy, I'd be giving the Cardinals a strong chance here. They are the real deal, especially on defense. The Cards have already knocked off the other three teams in the NFC East this season, I think they complete the sweep on Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona
(/) Washington @ Minnesota (Pick'em)
Yikes, who knows in this one? For as bad as Minnesota's offense is, the defense has been quietly strong all season long. Home field and the defense will be the difference in this pick'em.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
(/) St. Louis (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5)
San Francisco has an incredible 15-0-1 record in its last 16 games at home against division rivals. The 49ers will likely win this game; the question is, will they cover? Considering how easily they dominated St. Louis in the second half of their last game, I'm going with yes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
(/) Denver (-3.0) @ New England (+3.0)
Who isn't excited to watch this one? Manning vs. Brady is always fun, and both teams come into this game with four-game winning streaks. Picking against New England as a home underdog isn't easy, but since the bye week Denver has been playing at another level with four straight double-digit wins. This one could go either way, but give me Manning and the Broncos.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) Oakland (+14.0) @ Seattle (-14.0)
Seattle really hasn't been playing all that well, and 14 points is a lot to give up on a team that isn't playing well. The alternative, of course, is taking the Oakland Raiders on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. If you want to go that route, you are a lot braver than I am.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(/) Baltimore (-2.0) @ Pittsburgh (+2.0)
Before Baltimore's blowout in the last meeting between these two teams, the previous five games in this series were decided by a field goal or less. This is always a great game. Pittsburgh has picked up its play a lot of late, and should be looking to get some revenge for the last time. I like Pittsburgh this time around.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
MONDAY
($) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ NY Giants (+3.0)
Indianapolis had an uncharacteristically awful game on defense last week in a 51-34 blowout loss to the Steelers, but that should serve as all the more motivation to bounce back this week. At only -3.0, I think the high-powered Colts are a great value.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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