THE INTRO
Confession Time: I will not be watching the NFL exclusively this afternoon!
In one of the least 'MURICA moves ever, I will be watching soccer today instead.
The Los Angeles Galaxy take on the New England Revolution for the MLS Cup at noon today.
I, of course, will be rooting for the Los Angeles Galaxy. Home town pride AND rooting against New England are both reason enough, but the real reason is a whole lot shinier.
My best friend works for the LA Galaxy on the sales staff. If the team wins the title today, he'll be getting a championship ring. From Tiffany's. One of those big, gaudy, diamond encrusted ones. How cool would that be?!?
I mean, originally my plan was to just be really happy for him. My new plan, after my last few Vegas trips have left me life broke, is to steal it and pawn it off!
I should get at least a couple hundred for it with all that precious metal and those precious jewels! Then I could stave off starvation and homelessness a little while longer.
Oh, crap. Just realized he's on the Dime mailing list. My plan might be foiled. Maybe not, though. Hopefully he doesn't read it this week. No one still reads this thing, do they?
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 0 - 3 - 0 (.000)
Spread "Leans": 4 - 6 - 0 (.400)
Spread "Coin Flips": 1 - 2 - 0 (.333)
With the spread: 5 - 11 - 0 (.313)
Without the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Season
Spread "Picks": 21 - 17 - 1 (.553)
Spread "Leans": 48 - 57 - 2 (.457)
Spread "Coin Flips": 15 - 16 - 1 (.484)
With the spread: 84 - 90 - 4 (.483)
Without the spread: 113 - 64 - 1 (.638)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Seattle (+1.5) @ San Francisco (-1.5)
(/) Washington (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
(?) San Diego (+6.0) @ Baltimore (-6.0)
(/) Oakland (+6.5) @ St. Louis (-6.5)
(/) Miami (-7.0) @ NY Jets (+7.0)
THE BAD
(/) Chicago (+7.0) @ Detroit (-7.0)
(/) Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
(?) Tennessee (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0)
(?) Cleveland (+3.5) @ Buffalo (-3.5)
($) NY Giants (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
(/) Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)
(/) New Orleans (+5.0) @ Pittsburgh (-5.0)
(/) Carolina (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
($) Arizona (-1.5) @ Atlanta (+1.5)
($) New England (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
(/) Denver (-1.5) @ Kansas City (+1.5)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
($) Dallas (-3.5) @ Chicago (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
SUNDAY
(/) Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
It's a division rivalry game between two teams that really need this win, so it is hard to know what to expect. Cincinnati's offense has struggled this season but the defense has been outstanding. Pittsburgh has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball this year and has struggled on the road. It should be a close game, but I have trouble picking against the Bengals at home here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
($) St. Louis (-2.5) @ Washington (+2.5)
St. Louis is coming into this game off of a 52-0 blowout win. Washington is coming into this game off of a 49-27 blowout loss. Despite last week's performances, a Washington team in disarray and 70% of the public betting on St. Louis, the line has moved from St. Louis -3.0 to St. Louis -2.5. This one pretty much defines "trap game" on the St. Louis side, so I guess we are going strong on the Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington
(?) NY Giants (-2.0) @ Tennessee (+2.0)
I couldn't care less either way on this one. I mean the Giants are the better team on paper, right? But considering they just blew a 21-point lead to JACKSONVILLE, do they even know how to win anymore? Thanks for that by the way fellas, the Raiders get that No. 1 pick back thanks to your futility! Oh right, I have to pick someone here. Um... the Giants, I guess. They can't let it happen again this week, can they? (Of course they can.)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
($) Carolina (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
I hesitate to take the Saints as a big favorite against anyone this year, but this has to be a spot for the Saints to roll. Carolina has lost six straight and is 1-8-1 over its last 10 games with six of those losses coming by double digits (including a 28-10 home loss to the Saints). The Saints, who have been one of the NFL's best home teams for years, have lost three straight at home and need to re-establish their mojo and stay in the playoff race with a win at home this Sunday. All signs, in my opinion, point to a New Orleans blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
(/) NY Jets (+4.0) @ Minnesota (-4.0)
Two really solid defensive teams with no offense. Definitely wouldn't lay four points here as I think the eventual winner likely wins by a field goal or so, so I like the Jets at +4. As for who wins, that's a flip for me, but I guess I'll go with the Jets to screw up their draft position with a win because that's what the Jets do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Jets
(/) Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
Miami quietly has one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking 6th in both scoring defense and total yardage. Baltimore has been solid on both sides of the ball, and with both teams sitting at 7-5, this game will go a long way in determining the AFC playoff picture. Obviously it could go either way, but Miami's home field advantage and Baltimore's susceptible pass defense give the Dolphins the edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
(?) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Indianapolis is very clearly the better team in this matchup, and the Colts are a good road team as well. There isn't really much here that points to a Browns win, but for some reason I feel that the upset is coming. Indianapolis has won two straight by 20+ and has pretty firm control of the AFC South... maybe this is just a letdown spot? Or maybe I'm seeing things where they aren't and the streak of 20+ point wins continues. We'll find out, but I guess I'll go with my gut.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
(?) Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Detroit (-10.0)
Detroit's offense has been mediocre all year. Does one Thanksgiving blowout against a pitiful Bears defense make everything better? Maybe. Am I ready to lay 10 points yet? Not really. But then, Tampa Bay's offense is going to struggle to score at all against Detroit's stingy defense, so the Lions could easily cover with a 21-10 type of score. Torn. Conflicted. Right on the fence. Want to leave this game out. Sigh... I guess we'll go with Detroit.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit
($) Houston (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
Good work Jacksonville! You played your way out of the No. 1 pick! To quote Bane from Dark Knight Rises for the Raiders, "gratefully accepted! We will need it." Now, do you have another upset in you this week? Or will a competent team (unlike the horrible Giants) pummel you, including JJ Watt forcing your horrible quarterback into mistakes all day long? Kinda, sorta, okay STRONGLY leading towards the latter.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
(?) Buffalo (+10.0) @ Denver (-10.0)
I definitely think Denver is going to win the game, at home, against the Buffalo Bills. I have no opinion at all on this spread. Buffalo has been playing well lately and I can definitely see the Bills hanging around into the fourth. I can also see them getting blown out easily enough. For the sake of the flip, I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) Kansas City (-2.5) @ Arizona (+2.5)
0-2 in their last two games, 6-1 in their previous seven games with five straight wins leading up to the two game losing streak. Remarkably, that is the exact same story for both of these teams over their last nine games. Unless they tie this week, the Chiefs and Cardinals will finally branch off from their mirror seasons after this one goes final. So who gets the win? I'm torn, but I said that I would roll with Arizona until they gave me a reason not to; and with the offense struggling under Stanton and a loss to the Falcons last week, they have. I think the Chiefs will get it done on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(/) Seattle (+1.0) @ Philadelphia (-1.0)
This is the one to watch on Sunday between two of the NFL's best teams and a potential NFC playoff game preview. Seattle's defense has been excellent recently and appears to be rounding into postseason form while Philadelphia's offense has been flying and also looks playoff-ready. Which side will win the battle? I'm leaning towards the Seahawks, but it will be very interesting to watch unfold.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(/) San Francisco (-8.0) @ Oakland (+8.0)
Coming off of a 52-0 loss on the road, the Raiders SHOULD be fired up to get back on track at home against their across the bay rival this Sunday. San Francisco shouldn't lose this game, but its offense has been struggling this season so a low-scoring 17-10 type win would be right on the mark. If rumors are right about Oakland coveting Jim Harbaugh, here's hoping they show him enough to gain his interest this week instead of getting blown out so bad that he says "nah, forget it".
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
(/) New England (-3.5) @ San Diego (+3.5)
A loss against Green Bay (one of the NFL's best, especially at home) doesn't make the Patriots any less of an elite team or a force to be reckoned with. San Diego has fought hard in three straight wins coming out of the bye, but I still think they are playing a tier or two below where New England is at right now. The Patriots don't lose two in a row very often and tend to really kick things into overdrive in December, making them look like a pretty safe pick on Sunday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
MONDAY
(/) Atlanta (+13.0) @ Green Bay (-13.0)
On the one hand, I could see Atlanta's offense shooting out with Green Bay, making the +13 look like an excellent value. On the other hand, Green Bay has been absolutely destroying teams at home this season, and Atlanta's post-bye hot streak of 3-1 with wins over Tampa Bay, Carolina and a slumping Arizona may just be smoke and mirrors considering the teams involved. We'll see what the Falcons are made of on Sunday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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