THE INTRO
Jason, one of my best friends and a fellow LA Kings season ticket holder, suggested that this week's edition of the Dime be named the "Touched by Pia, extra-special-luck edition", and I couldn't really argue with him.
It seems like a pretty solid name.
Pia Toscano, the beautiful and talented singer/song-writer who some of you may know from her run on American Idol and others may know as the national anthem singer for the Los Angeles Kings, had a free concert earlier in the week at a mall here in Los Angeles. She put on a great show, and I got the chance to meet her and get a hug and a picture afterwards. I have appropriately named that picture "Beauty and the Beast".
Jason is convinced that this chance encounter with Pia, who helped break a 45-year Stanley Cup drought for the Los Angeles Kings with her lucky anthem singing, means that I will be going undefeated this week.
Maybe he's right. I got Thursday night's game right against the spread. That's one down and 15 to go.
I don't even think that Pia's luck can save my hopeless handicapping skills, but here goes nothing!
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 2 - 2 - 0 (.500)
Spread "Leans": 3 - 5 - 0 (.375)
Spread "Coin Flips": 4 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
With the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Season
Spread "Picks": 23 - 19 - 1 (.548)
Spread "Leans": 51 - 62 - 2 (.451)
Spread "Coin Flips": 19 - 16 - 1 (.543)
With the spread: 93 - 97 - 4 (.489)
Without the spread: 121 - 72 - 1 (.627)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
($) Dallas (-3.5) @ Chicago (+3.5)
(?) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
(?) Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Detroit (-10.0)
($) Houston (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
(?) Buffalo (+10.0) @ Denver (-10.0)
(/) Seattle (+1.0) @ Philadelphia (-1.0)
(/) San Francisco (-8.0) @ Oakland (+8.0)
(/) New England (-3.5) @ San Diego (+3.5)
(?) NY Giants (-2.0) @ Tennessee (+2.0)
THE BAD
(/) Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
($) St. Louis (-2.5) @ Washington (+2.5)
($) Carolina (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
(/) NY Jets (+4.0) @ Minnesota (-4.0)
(/) Baltimore (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
(/) Kansas City (-2.5) @ Arizona (+2.5)
(/) Atlanta (+13.0) @ Green Bay (-13.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(/) Arizona (+6.0) @ St. Louis (-6.0)
Earlier this week, I loved St. Louis at -3.0. These two teams are both excellent on defense, but St. Louis's defense is playing at another level with two straight shutouts and the offense has been playing better than Arizona's, too. But at +6.0, I have to go with the Cardinals; there are just too many score combinations in which the Cardinals win this game or lose it by four or less. In what I expect to be a low scoring and interesting game, I'll take the Rams to win and the Cardinals to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis (LOSS)
SUNDAY
(/)
This is an odd game to try to predict. Both of these teams are bad on defense this year, but Atlanta is a lot worse, considering it ranks dead last in the league in total yards allowed. Both teams need a win as they are in the thick of their respective divisional playoff races. All things being equal, I think Pittsburgh is the better team, and maybe last week's road win over Cincinnati cured the team's road woes. But I find myself leaning towards the Falcons at home in a shootout, perhaps simply because these are the games that the inconsistent Steelers tend to lose.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
(/)
Both of these teams have been fairly hopeless all season long, and it makes sense for the Giants to be such a big favorite coming off of a blowout win and with the Redskins coming in off of a blowout, shutout loss. I got burned by the Redskins last week picking them to "show something", so I guess I'll go ahead and make the same mistake again this week, because they SHOULD come out and make a game of this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
($)
Really the only game I love on the board this week. New England has been steam-rolling everyone by double-digits, and this week they get a warm-weather team in the cold up in New England that suddenly doesn't have much to play for having slipped down in the AFC Wild Card race. I like the Dolphins and their defense, but this seems like a pretty standard December home blowout for the Patriots waiting to happen.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
(/)
Really torn on this one. Kansas City would love to get some revenge on the Raiders for the last loss, and Oakland has been a lot worse on the road than it has been at home of late. But are we really willing to give 11 points on a team that has lost its last three games going up against a Raiders team that should be feeling confident having already beaten the Chiefs and coming in off of an upset win of the 49ers? I feel like I'm getting suckered in, but I'm taking the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(/)
This spread, in my opinion, is right on the money. I could see Andrew Luck having a big day and running away with this one, but I can also see a Texans team fighting for its playoff life force this game to go right down to the wire. Perhaps another Andrew Luck fourth-quarter comeback waiting to happen? Seems about right.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
(/)
Baltimore, historically, just doesn't cover these spreads. Coming off of a hard fought road win last week and facing another tough road game next week and Houston, the Ravens will probably not be looking to exert 110% effort in this one, and should get by just fine with a 7-10 point victory on around 60-70%.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(/)
Buffalo has been playing solid hard-nosed football this season, and an upset isn't out of the question. But with the Packers needing this win to stay ahead in the NFC North standings and such a massive advantage at the quarterback position in Aaron Rodgers over Kyle Orton, I'm just never picking against the Packers at -3.0 in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
(/)
Derek Anderson led the Panthers to a win over Tampa Bay back in Week 1, and many are expecting him to do it again this week. Maybe the Panthers have finally found their form as indicated by last week's blowout road win over the Saints. But this feels to me like one of those games where all of the pressure is on Carolina, and with the Panthers' most important player out with an injury I think the Buccaneers can strike and steal a surprise win on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
(/)
In addition to needing revenge for that humiliating loss to Cleveland on Thursday Night Football a few weeks back and needing a win coming off of last week's loss to Pittsburgh, the Bengals are facing a quarterback making his first career start in the NFL. Generally, first career starts don't go all that well. Manziel may dazzle with a big play or two, but I think he'll also be good for a big mistake or two as the Bengals come away with an important road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
(/)
Both of these teams are awful, and both need the super high draft pick that the winner of this game is going to screw itself out of. I have to go with the Jets simply because they occasionally look like a real football team in the running game and on defense, which is a lot more than what can be said about the Titans this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets
(/)
Peyton Manning hasn't been playing like an elite quarterback over the last few weeks and the Denver Broncos are still winning. That's a bad sign for the rest of the NFL. With the defense and running game playing well, Denver is finding multiple ways to win; and you can't expect Peyton to stay cold forever. This spread looks just right to me as I see this one being a close game, but I'll go with the Broncos to win by a touchdown or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(?)
I'm stumped on this one. Minnesota is playing well of late and has been solid on defense all season long. After struggling on offense for most of the year, Detroit has suddenly found its groove with back-to-back 34-17 wins, but those did come against lowly Tampa Bay and Chicago. Will this one be a defensive battle or an easy Lions win? I'll go with Detroit, but not confidently.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit
(/)
I'd love to say that this spread is ridiculous. That in this game between two elite teams with two elite defenses between two hated rivals 9.5 points is silly and the 49ers are an obvious choice. But what in San Francisco's play of late has qualified the 49ers as elite? The defense is still very strong, but the offense has been horrendous, and it should be even worse going against a Seattle defense that has completely owned Colin Kaepernick. Seattle has been playing lights out on defense in recent weeks and looks to be getting into postseason form. San Francisco looks like a team that knows its head coach is on his way out and can't find its focus. Perhaps it ends up being a low-scoring game that the 49ers get a backdoor cover in, but I like the Seahawks to win by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(/)
This one is a bit of a gut pick, but I like the Cowboys to go into Philly and get a win Sunday night. Dallas got smoked by the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day, but that game felt like a bit of a fluke to me; these two teams are much closer in talent than that game indicated, and the game between them should be a lot closer too. I like the Eagles a tiny bit better on both sides of the ball, and they play great at home too. But the Cowboys are undefeated on the road and I keep finding myself leaning towards them every time this game pops on my screen. So we'll go with it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas
MONDAY
(/) New Orleans (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Two disappointing, awful teams with under-performing quarterbacks and horrendous defenses. I can't wait to see this one! Or, you know, watch pretty much anything else. In any case, the fact that the Saints have more to play for with a playoff spot still on the line may help or hurt them, I'm not really sure. I just feel like on Monday night with everything else looking fairly equal, I'll take my chances on Drew Brees over Jay Cutler.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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