THE INTRO
Christmas is finally here! Hanukkah as well, if you've been celebrating that this week. Happy holidays to everyone!
I love the holidays as much (and probably more) than just about anyone, but as I sat in traffic for roughly three hours of my life today, I had plenty of time to wonder; do people not know that online shopping is a thing?
Amazon, people. You pick out what you want and it gets sent right to your door. Often cheaper than you'll find it in the stores, too.
Don't like Amazon? Are you one of these "I had a bad experience with Amazon once, so I've decided to boycott them forever despite the fact that people tell me their customer service is amazing and I'm being a stubborn fool for letting one tiny dispute mold my life" people? That's fine too, online shop with someone else!
Most of the big retailers will ship directly to you for free if it's a big order. Or offer in-store pick-up for free. Or, you know, you could just pay shipping and chalk it up to money well spent that saved you time, effort, gas money, and the risk of being trampled alive for 50% off on bath towels.
The internet is great. If you are one of the six people reading this stupid newsletter, you know how to click buttons well enough to open stuff and make it work for you. So stay at home in your PJs with a nice warm blanket and get your holiday shopping done the right way; online.
Tell your friends, too. Because I've had enough traffic for one year, and we've still got 11 more damn days to get through.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Spread "Leans": 9 - 4 - 1 (.375)
Spread "Coin Flips": 0 - 1 - 0 (.000)
With the spread: 10 - 5 - 1 (.667)
Without the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
Season
Spread "Picks": 24 - 19 - 1 (.558)
Spread "Leans": 60 - 66 - 2 (.476)
Spread "Coin Flips": 19 - 17 - 1 (.528)
With the spread: 103 - 102 - 5 (.502)
Without the spread: 133 - 76 - 1 (.636)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Arizona (+6.0) @ St. Louis (-6.0)
(/)
($)
(/)
(/)
(/)
(/)
(/)
(/)
(/)
(/) New Orleans (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
THE BAD
(/)
(/)
(/)
(/)
(?)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(?) Tennessee (+4.5) @ Jacksonville (-4.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville (LOSS)
SATURDAY
(/) Philadelphia (-7.5) @ Washington (+7.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia (LOSS)
(/) San Diego (+1.0) @ San Francisco (-1.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco (LOSS)
SUNDAY
(/) Minnesota (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
This spread doesn't really make much sense to me. Minnesota has won two of its last four games, and the two losses were by two points against Detroit and by three points against Green Bay. Miami has the talent to win this one by seven or more, but the Vikings have been playing great on defense and this looks on paper to be a boring 20-17 or 17-13 type of game in the Dolphins' favor.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
(/) Baltimore (-5.0) @ Houston (+5.0)
I still think of Case Keenum as the awesome college quarterback who shattered records playing for the Houston Cougars. In the NFL, though, he's just another undersized quarterback that can't quite get over the hump. I always root for guys like this, but not hard enough to pick against a locked in Baltimore Ravens side this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
($) Detroit (-8.0) @ Chicago (+8.0)
I absolutely hate the idea of going with a huge favorite with a lot to play for on the road against a division rival with nothing to lose. It seems like a recipe for disaster and an upset waiting to happen. The issue here is that Chicago has made Jay Cutler the scapegoat when in reality the problem is its absolutely horrific defense. Jimmy Clausen will probably do fine in a super protected role, but what happens when the Bears fall down a few scores early? Does Clausen get the green light to go into "comeback mode", or do the Bears just concede? Either way, how is this game ever not a comfortable win for the Lions?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit
(/) Cleveland (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)
Cincinnati provided the league with a perfect script on how to beat Johnny Manziel; pressure him and get him rolling out to his bad side. It may not work to perfection like it did last week, but Ron Rivera is smart enough to draw up a similar game plan and get his Panthers a win on Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
(?) Atlanta (+6.5) @ New Orleans (-6.5)
I honestly don't know here. Could be a shootout. Could be a comfortable New Orleans win. Could be an ugly turnover filled game. These two teams are so inconsistent and so undeserving of a playoff spot that it makes me sad that this game has massive playoff implications. New Orleans, I guess?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
(/) Green Bay (-11.5) @ Tampa Bay (+11.5)
Green Bay has a bit of a road game problem this season. The Packers are just 3-4 on the road this year, and two of those three wins came by only a field goal. Yes, Tampa Bay is terrible, but how can you lay 11.5 points on a team that has struggled on the road all season long? The Packers won't overlook this game after being upset on the road by Buffalo last week, but I still think they'll end up winning this one ugly instead of pretty.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
(/) Kansas City (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Keep going back and forth on this one, but I don't want to over-think it. It's the Steelers at home in December. The last two games seem to indicate that they've figured things out and put their inconsistencies behind them, and those inconsistencies usually came from lowering themselves to their opponents' level anyway. Against a solid team like the Chiefs, Pittsburgh should bring its best effort and find a win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
(/) New England (-10.5) @ NY Jets (+10.5)
All week I've been leaning towards the Jets, thinking that they have kept games close against the Patriots in the past and this seems like a great spot for them to do so again as a double-digit home underdog. But when push comes to shove, I have to go with New England. The Patriots are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread over their last 10 games, and seven of those nine wins have been by double digits. This one probably will be too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
(?) NY Giants (+6.5) @ St. Louis (-6.5)
Interesting line here with the Rams coming off of an ugly loss and the Giants playing well in back-to-back wins. Then again, those wins came against Tennessee and Washington, not necessarily proof that all is well for the Gmen. The Rams are playing so well on defense right now that I like them to win outright, but don't feel comfortable at all laying 6.5. But I don't like taking the Giants with the points either, so this is just one of those games you have to roll your eyes and pick a side in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis
(/) Buffalo (-6.5) @ Oakland (+6.5)
Everyone and their mother seems to be taking Buffalo in this one, and who can blame them? It is the Raiders, after all. But honestly, I think just about all signs point to a Raider cover here... other than, of course, talent on the field. But consider that the Bills are traveling cross-country and are playing in a must-win game while the Raiders have been relishing in the role of playing loose at home as a big underdog of late with upsets over Kansas City and San Francisco. The Bills are playing well, but this is still a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 14 seasons and is 7-22 straight up in its last 29 games on the road. And how can they NOT be thinking "we'll beat these clowns this week then it all comes down to New England next week"? I'm putting the Bills on upset alert, and while they may end up escaping with a win, I like the Raiders with the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
(/) Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
I was already leaning Indianapolis in this spot, simply because I see the game being a shootout and I like the Colts chances in a game like that even with TY Hilton listed as questionable. I think that the Eagles losing to Washington on Saturday only makes me feel more strongly about the upset here. Sure, Dallas could rally behind the chance to clinch, but I think it's more likely that subconsciously the team just let out a huge sigh of relief to see that loss. This one could go either way, but I'll stick with what I've been feeling all week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis
($) Seattle (-7.5) @ Arizona (+7.5)
Arizona's defense makes giving up 7.5 points, especially at home, a very scary proposition. But lets consider that Seattle is playing lights out on defense over the last month allowing only 6.5 points per game (!) over its last four games, and that Seahawks defense is going up against third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley Sunday night. Lindley, to date, has seven interceptions and zero touchdowns in his NFL career. Can the Cardinals possibly find more than nine points in this game? I'll take my chances that Seattle can find at least 17, especially considering the turnovers that are bound to happen when Lindley is forced to try to make a play.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
MONDAY
(?) Denver (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
This is a really interesting game. I see it being a great defensive matchup that could easily go either way. Denver is still fighting for home field advantage and Cincinnati is fighting for both a division title and the confidence that would come from beating a team like Denver heading into the postseason. My gut is telling me Cinci wins, but my brain says Denver as Manning over Dalton has to be the difference in a game like this. Or does it? Really have no idea. Guess I'll let my brain win this round.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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