THE INTRO
Good riddance, 2014. What a wildly disappointing and unproductive year for me, both on the Dime and off of it.
Let's focus on the failures here on the Dime, where I went a brilliant 4-11-1 last week. That angered me. But as I was updating my record, I realized the game totals weren't adding up. That somewhere along the way I'd missed a week.
Back tracked and sure enough, the problem came on the week that I didn't send out the Dime. The Dime that I returned with had the previous week's stats recorded, but not the week before. So how did I do in the phantom week?
4-10.
So as I update my season record to reflect an 8-21-1 down swing, I ask myself for the 7,209th time this year, "where did it all go wrong?" That's an average of roughly 20 times per day that I've asked myself this question in 2014.
I sincerely hope that your year has been better than mine. Mine had some fantastic highlights; rooting for the Kings as they won the Cup, rooting for my Dad to enjoy his retirement, rooting for Jeff during his WSOP run, rooting for Gershom and Naima at their wedding, and rooting for the Galaxy as they won Sam a championship ring.
Yes, pretty much every highlight of my year was rooting for stuff that other people were accomplishing.
Three more days. One more regular season day. Let's just power through here, and I'll give it another shot in 2015.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Spread "Leans": 3 - 6 - 1 (.333)
Spread "Coin Flips": 0 - 4 - 0 (.000)
With the spread: 4 - 11 - 1 (.267)
Without the spread: 8 - 8 - 0 (.500)
Season
Spread "Picks": 25 - 23 - 1 (.521)
Spread "Leans": 67 - 77 - 3 (.465)
Spread "Coin Flips": 19 - 23 - 1 (.452)
With the spread: 111 - 123 - 6 (.474)
Without the spread: 147 - 92 - 1 (.615)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Minnesota (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
(/) Kansas City (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
(/) Buffalo (-6.5) @ Oakland (+6.5)
($) Seattle (-7.5) @ Arizona (+7.5)
(/) Cleveland (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0) TIE
THE BAD
(?) Tennessee (+4.5) @ Jacksonville (-4.5)
(/) Philadelphia (-7.5) @ Washington (+7.5)
(/) San Diego (+1.0) @ San Francisco (-1.0)
(/) Baltimore (-5.0) @ Houston (+5.0)
($) Detroit (-8.0) @ Chicago (+8.0)
(?) Atlanta (+6.5) @ New Orleans (-6.5)
(/) Green Bay (-11.5) @ Tampa Bay (+11.5)
(/) New England (-10.5) @ NY Jets (+10.5)
(?) NY Giants (+6.5) @ St. Louis (-6.5)
(/) Indianapolis (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
(?) Denver (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
SUNDAY
(/) Cleveland (+13.5) @ Baltimore (-13.5)
Baltimore is perfectly capable of blowing a team like Cleveland out, especially with rookie Connor Shaw under center. But I don't really feel great about picking them to do so when four of the Ravens' last five games have been decided by single digits and the Browns are still playing well on defense. So I'll reluctantly take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(?) Dallas (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
I have zero opinion on this one as I'm done trying to figure out the Redskins this year. The Cowboys are likely locked into the three-seed, but they are playing for an outside chance at a bye and would probably like to finish their year with a perfect 8-0 road record. So Dallas, I guess.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
(/) Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee (+7.0)
After last week's awful loss to the Cowboys, I don't think the Colts want to lose to what looks to be the league's worst team the week before the playoffs start. Andrew Luck tends to pick teams like this apart pretty easily, and shouldn't have trouble doing so this Sunday in a pretty meaningless game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
(/) Jacksonville (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)
Houston still has an outside shot at a playoff spot, should everything go perfectly on Sunday. That should give the Texans just enough motivation to show up on Sunday, which is usually all an NFL team needs to beat the Jaguars by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
(/) San Diego (+1.0) @ Kansas City (-1.0)
Even though Kansas City can still technically make the playoffs, all of the pressure in this game is clearly on the Chargers. This pick would be a lot easier to make if Alex Smith were healthy, but even without him I think that the Chiefs will do a good enough job on defense and in the running game to top the inconsistent Chargers at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(/) NY Jets (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
The concern here is that the Jets could rally together under the "win one for Rex" motivational umbrella, since he is a player's coach and is all but certainly going to be fired after this game. But then, if the players cared enough about him to rally, wouldn't they have before Week 17? Miami should finish up its season with a pretty easy win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
(?) Chicago (+6.0) @ Minnesota (-6.0)
I laugh as hard about the Chicago Bears as anybody, and the Vikings have been playing pretty solid football lately. But isn't this the same Bears team that beat this same Vikings team a month ago? Not that much has changed. I think the Vikings will probably win, but that it could easily end up being a close game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
(?) Buffalo (+5.0) @ New England (-5.0)
You can't do much with a game like this as neither team has anything to play for. Generally, Belichick hasn't been known to tank games in spots like this, so you still have to lean towards the Patriots. And even if they take Brady out, the defense and running game could still get it done. If Buffalo were fighting for a playoff spot I'd lean their way, but the demoralized Bills will probably just be going through the motions in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
(/) Philadelphia (+2.5) @ NY Giants (-2.5)
New York's offensive tear and three-game winning streak are too little too late in the real world, but not in the fantasy world where Odell Beckham Jr. has become a star. Philadelphia's late season stumble could end here if the Eagles bring their best, but why would they bother to do so after blowing their season last week? Seems like a clear enough choice.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
(/) New Orleans (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay (+4.0)
Yes, the Saints are awful this year. But are we really taking the 2-13 Buccaneers at only +4 against them? Maybe if the Saints were still fighting for a playoff spot and had the chance at blowing this by playing too tight. But in a game that means nothing to either team, the Saints are absolutely four points better than the NFC's worst team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
(/) Carolina (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
In my only upset of the week, I'm going with the Panthers. Atlanta is the better team, but Carolina has been playing inspired football over the last month or so and should come into this game as the looser team with the odds stacked against them. It could go either way, but I'm going with Cam Newton and company.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina
(/) Detroit (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Green Bay always wins the North, as it has each of the last three seasons. Green Bay always beats Detroit in Green Bay, as it has each of the past 23(!) seasons. Green Bay is averaging over 40 points per game at home this season. Detroit's starting center is suspended. Can Detroit keep this one close? Sure. Will they? I don't think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
(?) Oakland (+14.0) @ Denver (-14.0)
Obviously Denver is going to win this game at home. But are they going to win it by over two touchdowns? This just feels like one of those games that whatever I pick the opposite is going to happen in. I think Denver rolls, but we'll see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) Arizona (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)
Arizona can't score, and that makes them hard to pick. San Francisco doesn't care anymore, and also has trouble scoring, making the 49ers hard to pick. This looks to me like an ugly 10-7 or 17-13 type of game that could go either way, so I'll take the points with the Cardinals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
($) St. Louis (+12.0) @ Seattle (-12.0)
Seattle has won each of its last five games by 10 points or more, and is one more win away from locking up the top seed in the NFC and putting itself in a fantastic position to repeat as Super Bowl champions. I can't make much of a case for picking against the Seahawks in this spot with the way they are playing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
(?) Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)
I'm stumped on this one, but not in the usual "both teams are so bad" way. In this case, it should be a great game. I give the Steelers the slight edge as they are at home and have the better offense, but I could see Cincinnati's win over Denver boosting this team's morale and giving them some hope coming into this big game. Should be a good one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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