| Our late-season slide continued last week, with our official plays going 3-4. Our Big Plays took the hit, going 1-3 and dropping our YTD record to 50 percent.* The Titans (+3.5) blew a 10-point first-half lead and lost by eight on Thursday at the Jaguars; the Bears (+9) almost beat the Lions outright, giving us a fairly easy cover; the Chiefs (+3) failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities, and fell 20-12 at the Steelers. And the Cardinals (+8) continued to miss having a real quarterback, collapsing in the fourth quarter and losing by 29 to the Seahawks. Our Other Plays went 2-1, pulling them up to 16-11-1. San Francisco (-1) was one of the tougher losses to swallow. The 49ers blew a 21-point halftime lead on Saturday night, due in large part to the fumble luck of the Chargers, who recovered all four fumbles. The Redskins (+7/+7.5) won outright over the Eagles, and the Panthers (-3.5) squeaked out the cover by one point against the Browns. Our one Break-Even or Better selection was Miami (-6.5), a loser. So overall, heading into Week 17, we stand at a below-expectation but still profitable 53.7 percent on our official plays (33-28-1). But that makes our year sound a lot better than it has been. Though our Break-Even or Better selections are unofficial and mostly there for you action junkies, we still expect them to win around 53 percent of the time, so a 12-22-1 record is downright miserable. This certainly hasn't been our best NFL season, but it's not entirely unusual either. A year is a small sample, and given that our expectation is in the neighborhood of around 55 percent on our official plays, it's almost inevitable that we'll have unprofitable years due to randomness alone, just like we'll have years hitting close to 60 percent. If you've just been playing our official plays, this year has still been profitable; however, if you have been playing any of our unofficial BEOB selections, you probably are not so fortunate. Week 17 Picks: Big Plays (17-17 YTD)*
-- Miami -6 vs. New York Jets [MP Line: MIA -12.9]
-- Kansas City -3 vs. San Diego [MP Line: KC -6.9]
-- Philadelphia +3/+2.5 at New York Giants [MP Line: PHI -1.2]
-- St. Louis +12.5 at Seattle [MP Line: STL +7.4] Other Plays (16-11-1 YTD)
-- Dallas -5.5 at Washington [MP Line: DAL -8.7] Break-Even or Better (12-22-1 YTD)*
-- Carolina +4 at Atlanta [MP Line: CAR +2.4]
-- New Orleans -4 vs. Tampa Bay [MP Line: NO -7.0] Editors' note: We are giving Massey-Peabody the benefit of the better line on two games, where the number was between 3 and 3.5. | 
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