Dave's Dime Conference Finals Week: Winding Down

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

Let's see... what do I talk about in the intro this week?

How enraged I am that the Los Angeles Kings retired Rob Blake's number?

How I'm in the early stages of starting up a new business?

How I'm bummed that there are only three football games left?

How new printers that you try to hook up at two in the morning don't come with the USB cord necessary to make them work, leaving you screwed when nothing in your city is open?

How giving up alcohol, fried foods, chips, pizza, candy, and desserts per a new years resolution makes life miserable?

How when you close your eyes really tight those little neon green rings appear?

Hmm. All decent options, but I'm not really in the talking mood. And I'm sleepy. So let's just knock these picks out! 

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)

Without the spread: 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)

OVER/UNDER: 1 - 3 - 0 (.250)

Playoffs

With the spread: 4 - 4 - 0 (.500)

Without the spread: 6 - 2 - 0 (.750)

OVER/UNDER: 1 - 7 - 0 (.125)

  

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Carolina (+11.5) @ Seattle (-11.5)

Dallas (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5)

Indianapolis (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)

THE BAD

Baltimore (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick

 

SUNDAY

Green Bay (+7.5) @ Seattle (-7.5)

If this game were in Green Bay, or even at a neutral site, I'd be a lot more intrigued. 

But while the Packers ended up going 9-0 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread at home, they were just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this season.

 I'd also be a lot more intrigued if Aaron Rodgers were at 100%, but he is not. He played perfectly well last week against Dallas, but Seattle's defense will likely do a better job of pressuring him and could leave him in bad shape as the game wears on. It was also a bad sign for Green Bay that the Packers couldn't stop the run very well last week, as things don't get any easier with Marshawn Lynch on the horizon. There are some scenarios where the Packers make this a game, but in Seattle, most of the sims I run in my mind result in the Seahawks comfortably returning to the Super Bowl. 

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

OVER/UNDER 46.0: Under (27-16 Seattle)

Indianapolis (+6.5) @ New England (-6.5)

I'm extremely torn on this one. I could see Indianapolis winning outright, but I could also see the Colts losing by 20+. So how do you pick it? The Colts have been playing very well on defense of late, but all of those performances have been against weak offenses; including gimpy, inaccurate Peyton Manning last week. New England was bad on defense last week, but in the weeks prior was very good. Does this one end up being a shootout? A defensive standoff? Close, or a blowout? I have more questions than answers. Forced to make a pick, while I think there is a good chance New England wins by double digits, I'll give Andrew Luck my respect and guess that he keeps this one close. 

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England 

OVER/UNDER 53.5: Over (31-27 New England)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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