THE INTRO
Happy New Year everyone!
Even after a 13-3 straight up and 11-5 against the spread record last week, I still ended up having a pretty mediocre (or "awful" if you are less generous) season. But, for the second straight year since starting to separate them, my top plays (the $ "Picks") did end up being profitable. So that's the silver lining, I suppose.
To my fellow college football fans, how frigging amazing was the college football playoff? Oregon stomping a team that had won 29 straight games? Ohio State winning a game that NO ONE thought they could win? What a blast. I can only hope this weekend's football is half as entertaining.
Speaking of this weekend's football, I'm feeling really good about all of the picks. Meaning, of course, that I'm pretty much locked in to go 1-3 ATS or worse.
Expecting some pretty big things from myself in 2015. I will keep them to myself until I actually accomplish them instead of running off at the mouth about all of the amazing things I WILL do. Actions speak louder than words.
I hope that all of you have a safe, happy, fun, healthy, and productive 2015! May all of your personal goals and ambitions come to life.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Spread "Leans": 6 - 4 - 0 (.600)
Spread "Coin Flips": 4 - 1 - 0 (.800)
With the spread: 11 - 5 - 0 (.688)
Without the spread: 13 - 3 - 0 (.813)
Season (Final)
Spread "Picks": 26 - 23 - 1 (.531)
Spread "Leans": 73 - 81 - 3 (.474)
Spread "Coin Flips": 23 - 24 - 1 (.489)
With the spread: 122 - 128 - 6 (.488)
Without the spread: 160 - 95 - 1 (.627)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Cleveland (+13.5) @ Baltimore (-13.5)
(?) Dallas (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
(/) Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Tennessee (+7.0)
(/) San Diego (+1.0) @ Kansas City (-1.0)
(?) Chicago (+6.0) @ Minnesota (-6.0)
(/) Carolina (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
(/) Detroit (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
(?) Oakland (+14.0) @ Denver (-14.0)
(/) Arizona (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)
($) St. Louis (+12.0) @ Seattle (-12.0)
(?) Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)
THE BAD
(/) Jacksonville (+9.5) @ Houston (-9.5)
(/) NY Jets (+6.0) @ Miami (-6.0)
(?) Buffalo (+5.0) @ New England (-5.0)
(/) Philadelphia (+2.5) @ NY Giants (-2.5)
(/) New Orleans (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay (+4.0)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
SATURDAY
Arizona (+6.5) @ Carolina (-6.5)
These two teams have been going in opposite directions for a little while now with Arizona down to their third-string quarterback and blowing a big lead in the NFC West and Carolina winning four straight to improbably win the NFC North. Yes, Arizona still has Ryan Lindley at quarterback, which is certainly going to make it hard to win a playoff game on the road. But the Cardinals still also have an elite defense that has kept the team afloat through thick and thin. I like the Panthers to win, but this game should stay close from start to finish.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
OVER/UNDER 38.0: Under (20-17 Carolina)
Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Losing Le'Veon Bell is such a big hit to the Steelers offense. Baltimore should be able to focus more on defending the passing game now and is definitely in better position to pull off the upset. But I'm not quite ready to go that direction; Pittsburgh's home field advantage is so strong and Baltimore's offense hasn't been all that strong of late. Unlike the two blowouts the regular season produced, this one should be more standard Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore down-to-the-wire fare, with the Steelers coming out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
OVER/UNDER 44.5: Under (24-17 Pittsburgh)
SUNDAY
Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
Sure, the fact that the Bengals haven't won a playoff game in 24 years isn't all on THIS version of the team, but the team's lack of playoff success hanging like a black cloud over the franchise's head can't help. I like Cincinnati and I like the team's defense, but Andy Dalton has not been good at all this season. If the defense keeps the game close, who are you taking to make the big play down the stretch, Dalton or Andrew Luck? And if the game isn't close late, it's probably because the Colts ran away with it. At home, I'll happily take Luck and the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 48.5: Over (31-21 Indianapolis)
Detroit (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
I find myself trying to make a case for the Lions, who have a defense second only to the Seahawks statistically which should make them extremely dangerous in postseason play. But the more I look over their schedule, the more I fail to find many signs that they can win a road game against a quality opponent. Dallas finished the season red-hot on offense, and against Detroit's weak offense should be able to find a way to win even if the Lions do have a great day on defense. I think the defensive numbers were helped by a soft schedule though, and that Dallas's hot offense will stay hot this week with a strong perfromance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
OVER/UNDER 48.0: Over (34-20 Dallas)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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