Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Divisional playoff point spread update: Bettors fading Rodgers’ calf?

JANUARY 2015    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

Divisional playoff point spread update: Bettors fading Rodgers' calf?

@TheLinemakers

The Cowboys have been bet from 6.5-point underdogs to +6 for Sunday's NFC divisional playoff game against the Packers, and, according to one Las Vegas bookmaker, bettors may be fading Aaron Rodgers' injured calf.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said he doesn't expect Rodgers to practice until Thursday, and the quarterback's injured calf won't heal by Sunday, per the Green Bay Press-Gazette . Rodgers knows there's a chance of further injuring the calf during Sunday's game, according to the report.

"I think the big thing here is how is Rodgers' health," Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told The Linemakers on Sporting News this week. "I think the market is going to bet against his health saying, 'we don't think he's healthy and if he takes a hit he can leave the game.'

"Obviously, if he leaves the game and you've got Matt Flynn in there, the wrong team would be favored at that point," said Salmons.

The line, though, could move back toward the Packers ahead of kickoff.

"The public will probably bet Green Bay because they love Green Bay," said Salmons.

AFC games sitting at a touchdown

This weekend's two AFC games – Ravens at Patriots and Colts at Broncos – were both bet from opening numbers of 7.5 down to 7, and Salmons sees both lines staying at that key number.

"They took 7.5 (in Baltimore-New England), and we opened Denver -7.5, too. We tried to push as high as we could go to see what (action we'd get)."

Both games opened at a touchdown at other shops, and Salmons said, "When there's 7s out there, they're going to take 7.5. These two games are going to close 7, it looks like."

How low can you go?

The lowest total on the board didn't open quite low enough for the betting market's tastes.

The Westgate hung 40.5 on the Panthers-Seahawks game on Sunday night and moved to 39.5 on Wednesday.

These teams have met once in each of the last three seasons (all in Carolina), and while the total for Saturday night is lower than all them, none of the games have come close to going OVER.

The scores and totals:
2014: Seahawks 13-Panthers 9 (total: 44.5)
2013: Seahawks 12-Panthers 7 (total: 44.5)
2012: Seahawks 12-Panthers 12 (total: 42.5)

Here are the point spreads and totals posted at the Westgate (as of 12 p.m. ET on Wednesday) for the divisional-round:

Ravens at Patriots (-7, 48)
Panthers at Seahawks (-11, 39.5)
Cowboys at Packers (-6, 53)
Colts at Broncos (-7. 54)


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Line of the day

“ A few trends for tonight's key Big 12 matchup: Kansas is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Baylor. The UNDER is 5-1 in the series' last six meetings at Baylor. ”

 
 
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