Tuesday, January 20, 2015

NFL Audit - Super Bowl XLIX sees familar early betting pattern

JANUARY 2015    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

NFL Audit - Super Bowl XLIX sees familar early betting pattern

@TheLinemakers

With the Super Bowl matchup set, here are six some observations in advance of Seahawks-Patriots.

1. Don't get worked up about the point spread movement in Super Bowl 49.

One year ago, the Seahawks opened as 1- or 2-point favorites over the Broncos in Super Bowl 48. Two Sundays later, the Broncos were 2.5-point favorites when the big game commenced.

As you recall, the underdog won by 35 points. All that Denver money gone, a good deal of it redistributed among Seattle backers.

Fast forward to this year. Once again, the Seahawks were installed as slight favorites. Once again, early money came on the underdog. Pick 'em became the consensus line in Nevada.

The bettors are doing it again. The price has improved on Seattle.

Forgive Seahawks supporters if they are smiling like it's Christmas morning. They will again be able to play their team at a short price in a big game.

2. Study the last meeting between the teams back in 2012.

Some will say Seattle's 24-23 victory over New England in October 2012 is too far in the past to be considered in the handicapping of Super Bowl 49. Indeed, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Sidney Rice and Braylon Edwards scored four of the game's five TDs.

However, rewatching the last matchup between the clubs might not be a bad idea.

For starters, both teams have the same offensive coordinators as they did in 2012. The head coaches, both of whom have strong defensive backgrounds, remain the same, too.

In short, while the rosters have changed, a good number of both club's core concepts figure to be similar in the rematch in Super Bowl 49.

3. The offensive and defensive line play could be paramount on Super Sunday.

Both the Patriots and Seahawks pride themselves on their physicality. The question is, can either club assert an advantage here in the Super Bowl?

Figure this out, and you may have an edge over handicappers studying Tom Brady and Russell Wilson -- players whom you likely know very well as it is.

Everyone does, so look toward the trenches.

4. Examine each club's worst moments of the postseason.

For a pair of No. 1 seeds, the Patriots and Seahawks haven't looked like powerhouses for parts of the postseason.

Eight days before dispatching of the Colts with utter ease, the Patriots were in danger of being eliminated by Baltimore.

Would you have rushed to bet those Patriots to win the Super Bowl after that performance?

Similarly, would you have any confidence wagering on the Seahawks club that struggled through the first 57 minutes against Green Bay on Sunday?

Handicappers could easily look at the lowest points for each club in the postseason and scare themselves into making a 270-degree turn away from the sports book toward the mini baccarat table. In the end, the major consideration is whether any of those vulnerable moments suggest a club losing -- or already off -- its best form.

Read the rest of The Audit, which includes Mike Wilkening's take on the futures odds of the Colts and Packers, right here at The Linemakers on Sporting News .


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Line of the day

“ With crazy Super Bowl props starting to appear in places far away from Las Vegas, Bill Belichick wearing a grey hoodie is listed as the -145 favorite, with a blue hoodie the +105 underdog. ”

 
 
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