Dave's Dime: Super Bowl XLIX!

Dave's Dime

"Because Two Cents Just Isn't Enough"
www.davesdime.com

THE INTRO

We did it everyone!

We made it through another year of the Dime without quitting! Meaning, in all likelihood, that it will be back again next year!

Not really sure if that warrants all of the exclamation points, but I digress.

I wanted to get the Dime out in more advance of the big game, but to be quite honest I've been putting it off as long as possible because I have no idea who is going to win this game.

Long-time readers of the Dime should remember the "Consolazio Curse". Without question, I am the unluckiest person on earth when it comes to rooting for a team in the Super Bowl. The team that I have rooted for in the Super Bowl has gone an inconceivable 2-16 over the last 18 years.

As such, betting against the team I'm rooting for might be one of the best bets in all of sports. Hard to find a trend that hits 89% of the time.

I'm rooting for the Seattle Seahawks. So go ahead and stop reading this email and bet the Patriots with the utmost of confidence.

What, you actually care who I think is going to win the game? Well, read on then, I guess.

 

THE RECORD

Last Week

With the spread: 0 - 2 - 0 (.000)

Without the spread: 2 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

OVER/UNDER: 0 - 2 - 0 (.000)

Playoffs

With the spread: 4 - 6 - 0 (.400)

Without the spread: 8 - 2 - 0 (.800)

OVER/UNDER: 1 - 9 - 0 (.100)

  

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE BAD

Green Bay (+7.5) @ Seattle (-7.5)

Indianapolis (+6.5) @ New England (-6.5)

THE PICKS

* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick

 

SUNDAY

New England (+1.0) vs Seattle (-1.0)

This game has me stumped.

My first impulse was that I liked Seattle. The Seahawks have an elite defense, one unlike anything that the Patriots have seen so far this postseason. In the same way that Seattle completely shutdown Denver's amazing offense last year, New England's offense would be shut down this year. The Patriots have been held in check on offense in each of their last two Super Bowl appearances, so why couldn't Seattle do the same?

Then, I shifted to New England. The Patriots have been great on defense of late, and Seattle's offense has become pretty one-dimensional with a depleted wide-receiving core. Even if the Patriots do struggle to score, the Seahawks may struggle as well, especially since New England has the blue print for how to slow them down from the first 55 minutes of the Green Bay game last week. So in what could end up being a defensive battle, don't you like New England to make a few more plays on offense?

But then I came back around to Seattle. Not only am I in love with the defense, but I think New England has been fortunate to avoid an elite running back like Marshawn Lynch this postseason. I do think that this will be a close game that will go right down to the wire, but I actually think it might be Marshawn Lynch and not Tom Brady that is the X-factor that puts his team over the top.

It's silly to talk about motivation or chips on shoulders or anything like that. Every player on the field wants it at this point. It's the Super Bowl. 

I've changed my mind a dozen times and I'm likely to do so again if I don't just hit send, so here we go.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle

PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

OVER/UNDER 47.0: Under (20-17 Seattle)

Thank you all for spending another year reading the Dime! Have a great Super Bowl Sunday and I'll see you next season!

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