Wednesday, February 18, 2015

North Carolina sizable dogs at Duke with plenty to prove

FEBRUARY 2015    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

North Carolina sizable dogs at Duke with plenty to prove

@TheLinemakers

Perhaps the greatest rivalry in college basketball renews Wednesday night in Durham (9 p.m ET, ESPN), as Duke -- the fourth-ranked team in the country and the third favorite to win the NCAA Tournament -- hosts a North Carolina squad that has lost three of its last four games and is losing respect in Las Vegas. The Tar Heels' odds to win the Tourney have spiked to a season-high 60-to-1 at the Westgate.

Line: Duke -8.5, Total: 156.5

While the Blue Devils have put some distance between themselves and the Tar Heels in the win column and popularity polls, The Linemakers on Sporting News still believe in Carolina, and -- according to our power ratings -- these teams are a lot closer than most believe. The current Don Best/Linemakers ratings have Duke at No. 7 and UNC at No. 10, with just over a point separating them on a neutral court.

Duke (22-3 SU, 13-11-1 ATS) has put together quite the resume, with wins over some of the best teams in the country, including road victories against Wisconsin, Louisville and Virginia. The Blue Devils had a two-game blip in January, losing to N.C. State and Miami, and their third loss, at Notre Dame, was avenged via a 30-point beatdown of the Irish 10 days later. They're 14-1 SU and 8-6-1 against the spread at home.

Carolina (18-7 SU, 12-12-1 ATS) is coming off a 13-point loss at unranked Pittsburgh. The Heels are 7-3 SU on the road this season, but they haven't exactly thrived in the road underdog role. They're 0-2 when catching points away this season -- losing 78-68 as 5-point dogs to Louisville (although the game went into overtime) and 84-70 as 12-point puppies at Kentucky. In fact, Roy Williams' squad has lost five straight in the role dating back to last season, including 93-81 when catching 9 at Duke last season.

Duke boasts one of the best players in the county in Jahlil Okafor, the likely No. 1 pick in June's NBA Draft. He's averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, and UNC's Brice Johnson will have his hands full on Wednesday night.

These are two solid OVER teams -- North Carolina is 14-8-1 to the OVER this season, while Duke is 13-9 O/U.

The Linemakers' lean: Both teams' strength is on offense. North Carolina ranks 32nd in offensive efficiency and 77th in defense. Duke is 3rd in offense, 89th on D. In terms of pace of play, UNC is the 15th fastest team in the nation, and Duke will run with its opponent when asked. Also, neither team turns the ball over. We see both teams scoring in the 80s tonight.

North Carolina may not have proved it yet, but it's a solid team, particularly on the offensive boards and in assists. They'll be ready to fire Wednesday night, and these are too many points to pass up.

North Carolina +8.5 and OVER 156.5 are the plays.

More picks: Two more leans from The Linemakers' Kenny White on tonight's college basketball card can be found right here.


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