Friday, February 27, 2015

Ronda Rousey faces toughest opponent yet in UFC 184

FEBRUARY 2015    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

Ronda Rousey faces toughest opponent yet in UFC 184

@TheLinemakers

LAS VEGAS-- UFC 184 comes to us Saturday night from Los Angeles, Calif., with a women's bantamweight title fight between two undefeated fighters, champion "Rowdy" Ronda Rousey and challenger Cat Zingano. Rousey is a prohibitive -900 favorite, with Zingano getting odds of +600 as the underdog.

Rousey (10-0) has taken the MMA world by storm the last two years and has become the UFC's biggest star. Her last two fights were mere workouts, as she finished Sara McMann with knees in a little over a minute in February 2014 and knocked out Alexis Davis in just 16 seconds in July.

The only fighter to take Ronda past the first round has been Miesha Tate, in December 2013. Tate made it to the third round before getting caught by Rousey's famous arm bar. Until someone can keep a fight standing against Rousey, it's doubtful she'll have any trouble staying champ -- her ground game is just superior to any other women in the division.

Betting value on Rousey, though, has disappeared, and any wager on her now makes little sense.

Zingano was supposed to coach against Rousey on the Ultimate Fighter show, but a serious knee injury forced her to be replaced by Tate, who Ronda would go on to defeat.

In April 2013, before suffering the injury, Zingano defeated Tate in the third round, stopping her with knees and punches. Cat came back in September 2014 after being out of the octagon for nearly a year-and-a-half with an impressive third-round TKO over Amanda Nunes.

Zingano will try to keep this fight standing and try to use her power to keep Rousey at a distance. Once Rousey gets hold of an opponent, it's only a matter of time until she's on her back -- her judo throws are amazing. And once on the ground, she's a master of getting that arm bar submission.

The Linemakers' lean: Once again, underdogs are the way to go in UFC fights, as we saw last Sunday, when dogs won all the televised bouts. Zingano clearly seems like Ronda's toughest opponent to date, so taking a shot at odds of +600 or higher by fight night seems worth while. The lean here is toward a value play on Zingano to derail the Ronda Rousey freight train.

Undercard

Another women's bantamweight fight on the undercard features the highly-anticipated UFC debut of Holly Holm, who takes on Raquel Pennington.

Holm (7-0), a highly-decorated boxing champion, is also a -900 favorite. Pennington, who is getting 6-to-1 odds as the underdog, has a modest 5-4 record while battling with some of the better fighters in the division.

The Linemakers' lean: The number here is way too high for someone as unproven as Holm. Take a shot with Pennington as the sizable underdog to pull the upset.


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Line of the day

“ With betting on the Olympics approved in Nevada, the U.S. is favored to win more gold medals than China, with a spread of -6.5 gold medals, according to odds posted at William Hill U.S. ”

 
 
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