Our across-the-board UNDER picks went 2-2 in last night's Sweet 16 action. Tonight should be more fun, since we have leans on sides in all four games. Hopefully, it will be more profitable, too.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga (-8. 5, 144.5), 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS
For a team that wasn't supposed to be here, the Bruins have covered four straight and nine of their last 11, and we are looking for them to do it again in a revenge spot. Our ratings say the line should be Gonzaga -6, so there's value with the Bruins, and we'll take the points. In terms of the total, we expect an up-and-down game, and we'll wager on Gonzaga going OVER the total for the sixth straight game. UCLA and OVER are the plays.
N.C. State at Louisville (-2.5, 129.5), 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS
Our power ratings give Louisville about a 5-point edge here, and the point spread swing from -10.5 last month to -3 on Friday is far too great. This all means there's value on the Cardinals. With revenge and a coaching edge in Louisville's favor, we're happy to lay the short price. Louisville -3 is the play.
Utah vs. Duke (-5, 134.5), 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS
There is a massive difference between the point spread and our power ratings in this matchup, as our numbers indicate the game should be closer to a pick 'em. Utah is superior on defense to Duke, whose D hasn't exactly been challenged in the Tournament by Robert Morris and San Diego State. Utah has a shot to win this game outright and may be worth a money-line play as well. There's also a correlated play on the total -- if Utah has success, the game is likely to be low-scoring. Utah and UNDER are the plays.
Michigan State (-2, 135) vs. Oklahoma, 10:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Oklahoma has not exactly been a cover-machine lately, but there's value on the Sooners as underdogs against a Michigan State team that's become a bit overrated by the betting market. Also, appearances say these are slow teams, but their pace-of-play stats are driven down by the conferences in which they compete. Both coaches like to go up-tempo and both squads get shots up quickly. We see some points being scored Friday night. Oklahoma +2 and OVER 135 are the plays.
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