Bettors are treated to what promises to be a pair of spectacular college basketball games in Saturday's Final Four. Here are notes on betting line movement and picks on both games from The Linemakers on Sporting News.
The first tip (6:09 p.m. ET, TBS) has Duke as a 5-point favorite over Michigan State. The spread has stayed relatively steady, although it's been as low as -4.5 and as high as -5.5. The total opened 140.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, where it has been bet down to 138.
The Linemakers' lean: We like the grit of this Michigan State team, which is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games. One of those spread losses was to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, where the Spartans took the Badgers to overtime before losing by 11 as 7-point underdogs. Our power ratings give Duke just a 1.5-point edge here, indicating there is plenty of value with Michigan State. MSU +5 is the play.
Read Matty Simo's Michigan State-Duke betting preview here.
The line for the later tip between Wisconsin and Kentucky (8:49 p.m. ET, TBS) saw a significant early move, with the Wildcats opening as 6- to 6.5-point favorites before dropping to -5. The total opened at 133.5 and was bet down to the 131, 131.5 range.
The Linemakers' lean: With Kentucky covering just once in the NCAA Tournament so far and Wisconsin cashing two games in a row, early bettors flocked to Wisconsin. The opening line was fair -- our power ratings give the Wildcats a 6.5-point edge over the Badgers -- but the number now offers value on the favorite. Kentucky has covered plenty of inflated spreads this season and now is offered at a cheap price. We'll lay the 5 points with the mighty Wildcats.
Read Michael Robinson's Wisconsin-Kentucky betting preview here.
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