Thursday, April 2, 2015

MLB division odds, win totals: A betting primer

APRIL 2015    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

MLB division odds, win totals: A betting primer

@TheLinemakers

LAS VEGAS -- With the 2015 MLB season getting underway Sunday night at Wrigley Field, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons walked us through each division and discussed where his shop's biggest risks lie. Also below, we offer our takes on the season win totals and odds for three divisions.

NL WEST
DODGERS 4-11 division odds (92 wins)
GIANTS 6-1 (82.5)
PADRES 4-1 (84)
ROCKIES 25-1 (73.5)
DIAMONDBACKS 35-1 (72)

SuperBook: "We've got a lot of Padres money to win the West, which is strange because the bulk of the action on the season win totals has been UNDER. In past years, the balance has shifted considerably to where now 75 percent of our action on the season win totals are public plays" (it used to be a prop dominated by wise-guy action).

The Linemakers' take: The Dodgers' starting pitching makes them the easy favorite, but the division will be better than last season and there are several question marks around their lineup, which makes UNDER 92 wins probable. The Padres will make a run at the division, and 4-to-1 is a very fair price. The best bet of all is the Rockies to win more than 73.5 games – they won only 66 games last season, but even with questionable pitching, their strong lineup should get them to 78 wins.

AL EAST
RED SOX 7-4 (86)
BLUE JAYS 13-4 (83)
ORIOLES 13-4 (83)
YANKEES 13-4 (82)
RAYS 12-1 (78)

SuperBook: "We've got a lot of money on the Red Sox to win the East at +175 and +180."

The Linemakers' take: Okay, so maybe this is the most competitive division in baseball. The only team that can be counted out is the Rays. The Red Sox, though, don't appear to be as good as many are suggesting and UNDER 86 wins looks like a good play. The Yankees and Orioles should each go OVER their win totals as they battle for the division.

AL WEST

ANGELS 7-5 (87)
MARINERS 3-2 (87.5)
A'S 4-1 (82)
RANGERS 15-1 (76)
ASTROS 15-1 (76)

SuperBook: "I think the Mariners are equal with the Angels, and almost all the money bet on the division odds has been on those two."

The Linemakers' take: The A's have found another young pitcher through the system in Kendall Graveman, who has had an outstanding spring, and despite so many radical changes on the roster from last season, they'll be very competitive within the division again, making OVER 82 wins a good play. The Angels and Mariners should be battling for the division crown, but the Astros and Rangers won't be pushovers this year, and 88 wins may win the division.

For our complete article on division odds and win totals, jump over to The Linemakers on Sporting News.

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