Friday, May 29, 2015

Game 7 at the Garden

MAY 2015    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

Game 7 at the Garden

@TheLinemakers

The Rangers, facing elimination, came to play in Game 6 in Tampa Bay and forced a decisive seventh game at Madison Square Garden tonight (8 p.m. ET, NBCSN. We've been down this road before, haven't we?

Line: As of about noon ET, the best line Rangers backers can find in Las Vegas is -135 at William Hill. The Lightning are available for +145 at the Westgate SuperBook. The total is 5 goals with equal -110 juice on OVER and UNDER across town.

Analysis: Of course this series is going the distance. The Rangers can never make it easy, win or lose. They've played six Game 7s at the Garden over the last four postseasons and won them all.

Henrik Lundqvist hasn't been beaten in his last 10 elimination games at home, giving up less than a goal per game in those contests. Is he due to regress, or will the magic continue? Lundqvist's window to finally hoist the Cup shrinks with each passing year, so he's elevated his game in a big way when he needs to.

New York was shut out at the Garden in Game 5, only to break through for seven goals (on only 55 shot attempts) against Ben Bishop and the Lightning in Amalie Arena in Game 6. For all that's been said about home ice advantage in this series, just two of six games have been won by the host. The Bolts have taken four of five in Manhattan this season, and have outscored the Rangers 9-4 there in this series.

As a whole, this series has been tight. The Rangers lead the possession battle, 51-49, and have scored 21 goals to the Lightning's 19. Shots on goal are 190-179, in favor of Tampa Bay.

History says the Rangers will be tough to beat Friday night, but how this series has been played could suggest otherwise. The Rangers have pressed a little bit at home, leading to sloppy play in the neutral and defensive zones. As favorites of -170 in Game 7 against the Capitals in the last round, the Rangers needed overtime to win, 2-1, and advance.

The highest, most widely available line on the Lightning will likely be around +125, a few cents higher than they've been in New York previously in this series.

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Line of the day

" Sixteen of the past 24 meetings between the Dodgers and Cardinals have stayed UNDER; the Cards are 8-3-1 to the UNDER in their last 12; seven of L.A.'s last 10 have stayed UNDER. UNDER 8 runs is -130 tonight. "

 
 
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