LAS VEGAS -- Stephen Curry finally put his MVP stamp on the NBA Finals, and the Cavaliers could not match him in the fourth quarter of Game 5. LeBron James may be the leading Finals MVP candidate, win or lose, but facing a 3-2 series deficit, it's become a tall order to get Cleveland a championship. The NBA Finals heads back to The Q for Game 6 on Tuesday (9 p.m. ET, ABC).
Game 6 spread, total: Warriors -4.5, 195 ( check our odds page for current Las Vegas lines )
Series odds: Warriors -1000, Cavs +700 (Wynn)
Outlook: All of the hypothesized concerns for Cleveland, especially after losing Kyrie Irving, are coming to the forefront. The Cavaliers' lack of depth has led to some tired and lopsided fourth quarters. On Sunday, the Warriors outscored the Cavs by seven in the final period and extended their win to double-digits.
Golden State got the cover as a 9-point favorite, winning 104-91. The total was a dead-heat, landing on 195, as bettors could have grabbed a range of 194.5 to 196. The first five games of the series were all UNDER after regulation – Game 1 went OVER the total in overtime.
For the first time this series, the real Warriors showed up. The kind of box score people are used to seeing from Golden State occurred in Game 5. The Ws shot almost 50 percent overall and 46.2 percent from deep. Most importantly, Curry was cookin'.
The league's MVP scored 17 points in the fourth to give him 37 for the game. In another familiar sight, Curry hit 7-of-13 from 3-point land.
James had his second triple-double of the series and incredible overall performance. His 40 points, 14 boards and 11 assists were not enough to get his team a win.
J.R. Smith looked to be having one of his lights-out shooting nights in the first half, but he failed to score a single point in the second. In fact, the entire Cleveland bench did not score in the latter half, when Mike Miller and James Jones took a total of two shots.
Head coach David Blatt matched Steve Kerr's adjustment to go small. Despite some media having a heart attack over the limited minutes of Timofey Mozgov, the strategy worked. Game 5 was a 1-point contest with under five minutes remaining in the game. That was when Curry, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala owned the moment and lifted the Dubs to victory.
Cleveland has shown it can win and cover against the Warriors, but has time run out? Golden State had a two-game mental adjustment to the Cavs having no Irving and a more scrappy Matthew Dellavedova. Beginning with the fourth quarter of Game 3, the Warriors have outscored the Cavaliers 243-197 and have shot 44.3 percent from long range.
Now, the Cavs have only one day of rest and have to gut out another seven- or eight-man rotation. Golden State has scored over 100 two games in a row, while holding the Cavs to 91 and 82 points. Golden State has begun to assert itself.
Yet, the Cavs appeared to be a good J.R. Smith second half away from another win. Can the Cavaliers find a way to get back to Oracle Arena?
The Linemakers' lean: The Warriors have played their best the past two games, while the lack of offensive support for LeBron James has become increasingly evident. However, we're not ready to jump ship just yet. Cleveland will come with a big effort at home, and we sure as heck can't lay -4.5 when the line is inflated by 3 points.
Also, UNDER has been the way to go all series, and it's a correlated play with the side since a slower-paced, grind-it-out game is probably the only way the Cavs will cover.
Cavs +4.5 and UNDER 195 are the plays.
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