LAS VEGAS -- We've got the 86th Major League Baseball All-Star game tonight from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox), with the National League a -115 favorite and the total set at 7 runs (OV -130).
Our first piece of advice is to temper your wagering enthusiasm and remember this is an exhibition game. If your normal wager is $100 during the regular season, drop it down to $20 for this one. There isn't a lot to handicap with so many players being shuffled in and out of the game. Yes, they all care about winning and the winning league gets home field in the World Series, but it's still an exhibition.
If we knew that Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.39 ERA) was going to pitch seven innings, laying -115 would be a gift, but he's probably going to pitch two innings and give way to the rest of the NL pitching staff. Dallas Keuchel (11-4, 2.23) gets the start for the AL, and he'll likely get just two innings as well.
Greinke figures to have a nice edge early against an American League starting lineup that features all right-handers. This season he's held right-handers to a .194 batting average.
In 85 All-Star games, the NL has a 43-40-2 advantage, but throughout the years we've seen each league go on some major streaks. From 1972-82, the NL won 11 straight. From 1997-09, the AL had a 13-game unbeaten streak, including Bud Selig's 7-7 tie at Miller Park in 2002. The AL is currently on a two-game win streak and on a 14-3-1 run.
All those numbers suggest the AL should continue to roll, but I can't go that way and that's because my heart gets in the way. I'm a National League guy – born that way – and I've always rooted for that side, and that's part of the problem with wagering. It's an exhibition game, so I'm not going to wager too much, and I know I'm going to root for the NL.
Obviously, things haven't worked out well lately betting with my heart, but I'm stubborn and a National Leaguer and that's how I'm going to roll again. My man Kenny White is on board with the NL and UNDER, so I'm feeling a little more confident, but the wager will still be small.
Enjoy the game and good luck.
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