What college football teams are poised for improvement?

By Dave Bartoo, Sporting News	@TheLinemakers


This is an edited excerpt from Dave Bartoo's digital magazine, CFBMatrix . For more, check out Dave's library of digital previews . Predicting which college football teams will perform above or below their previous season's win total is difficult. In fact, over 80 percent of all FBS teams fall within +/- 2 games against their prior season's record. When I am looking for teams to make a jump in season win totals, I look for in-conference or division talent ranking, the quality of coaching (it is hard keep a positive Coach Effect guy down) and metrics that are not likely repeated year after year, like a loss of a pro-level quarterback or bad turnover luck. A CFBMatrix statistic that I like to lean on in projecting win totals is based in talent rankings . Teams that are bowl ineligible the previous season, for example, yet sit in the top 40 of my talent metric, win six or more games the next season 73 percent of the time. Teams that fit these conditions for 2015 include Michigan, California, Virginia and Kentucky. Here are my thoughts on a few teams that may exceed their 2014 regular-season win totals by three games or more. Each teams OVER/UNDER win total posted by oddsmakers for the 2015 season are also listed: Michigan 2014 actual regular-season wins: 5 2015 posted OVER/UNDER win total: 7.5 (OVER -145) This program has pulled elite talent for the better part of this century, yet is one of two top-ten recruiters during this era not to win a national title game. There is plenty of talent in Ann Arbor for new head coach Jim Harbaugh to improve by three wins — a guy who owns a positive Coach Effect in his two previous collegiate gigs. Harbaugh returns more starters than all but one Big Ten team, and this team had terrible turnover luck in 2014. Oklahoma State 2014 actual regular-season wins: 6 2015 posted OVER/UNDER win total: 8 (UNDER -120) The talent level in Stillwater is solid, but Mike Gundy earned his worst Coach Effect rating last season since taking over in Stillwater in 2005. I do not expect that to continue. The Cowboys return 20 of 24 guys who made over six starts last season. Their turnover margin (TOM) was an ugly -8, the team's first negative number in five seasons. Penn State 2014 actual regular-season wins: 6 2015 posted OVER/UNDER win total: 8.5 (-110) The Nittany Lions continue to recruit very well since the Paterno scandal, as their talent stratification gets better season after season. Head coach James Franklin returns most of the defense which was one of the best in scoring efficiency in 2014. In addition, eight starters are back on offense, though they were average much of last year. Virginia Tech 2014 actual regular-season wins: 6 2015 posted OVER/UNDER win total: 8 (OVER -130) I don't see the Hokies staying down for a third year. They have solid talent, and head coach Frank Beamer has been good in his career, save the last couple of sub-par seasons. The Hokies return 16 starters and should improve off of a rare negative TOM season in 2014. Tennessee 2014 actual regular-season wins : 6 2015 posted OVER/UNDER win total: 8 (OVER -130) Only 10 percent of all 7-5 regular - season Power Five teams go on to win 10 games or more the next season. I believe the Vols, however, can buck this trend since hiring veteran coach Butch Jones. Tennessee is young, and many will not see them as playoff contenders until next year. Interestingly, Jones returns more starters than any other SEC team. I feel the Vols can be the biggest mover in the SEC not only this year, but in many more to come. Dave Bartoo is a growing face and voice in college football with his unique angles, ideas and publications. Check out his full piece on teams who can outplay expectations right here at The Linemakers on Sporting News . You can find his work and digital magazine library at CFBMatrix.com , follow him on Twitter @CFBMatrix , get his apps for Apple or Google Play and hear him on iTunes . Got a question about a team not on here and if they are close? Tweet Dave or email him .