RENO -- Bookmakers and professional handicappers pay little or no attention to the media's national rankings. You know who does? Everyone else.
That's a great setup when you're looking for value at the betting window.
Big-name teams often get overvalued, while programs that are out of the public eye provide some great wagering opportunities.
Here's one team that will be undervalued and one that will be overvalued this season.
Undervalued: West Virginia Before last season, I had Dana Holgerson pegged as the first coach to get fired. Boy, was I wrong.
Holgerson was a hot commodity as an offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, Houston and Oklahoma State. After a strong start to his head coaching career at West Virginia, things began to turn sour.
West Virginia turned things around in 2014. Holgerson somehow regained his touch, and it showed on the field. They were much more efficient offensively and defensively.
This season, they lose some key players, just like most successful programs. However, a strong nucleus returns with 14 returning starters.
Not among those returning starters is Skyler Howard, who showed great promise at quarterback late in the season. The bulk of the defense is back and poised for continued improvement.
The Mountaineers were an astounding -15 in turnovers last season, and still posted a winning record. That does not figure to repeat, leaving room for a more efficient team and a few points of power ratings upgrade.
Overvalued: Miami-Florida The Hurricanes spent years – make that decades – among college football's consistent national championship contenders.
Coaches have come and gone with mixed success. Though none since Jimmy Johnson has been able to sustain success for more than a few seasons.
Al Golden is no different.
I take that back. Most Miami coaches won at least a little something. Golden has never won much of anything. His 2012 team won the Coastal Division, though they were only 7-5 on the year. The 2013 team went 9-4, but finished second in the division and lost its bowl game. That's his best season.
Golden has recruited really well. In that regard Miami has been among the best. The results on the field don't match the talent. That falls on the head coach.
This season, Miami has lost a lot of key players from last year's team. There is talent coming in off the bench, but a little experience might have helped with some of the close contests the Hurricanes figure to be involved in.
Games with Nebraska, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Pitt all look to be tossups.
Last year, Miami won two only games when it wasn't favored by more than double digits. Covering numbers was the identical profile, and the Hurricanes went 5-8 ATS.
Things are not going to get better this season. Look for it to be Golden's last.
Chris Andrews is a veteran bookmaker and handicapper. Read his entire piece on overvalued/undervalued teams right here at The Linemakers on Sporting News. Also, follow Chris on Twitter @andrewssports and visit his website, againstthenumber.com.
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