The first full week of the NFL preseason kicks off tonight with six games. Many eyes will be on New England with Tom Brady's Patriots playing just one day after his Deflategate meeting in New York with commissioner Roger Goodell and judge Richard M. Berman. The Jets also warrant some focus, after starting QB Geno Smith sustained a broken jaw via a punch from former teammate IK Enemkpali.
Bettors use Week 1 of the preseason to get their feet wet, knowing there's a good amount of unpredictability in terms of how long starters will play (if at all), and the quality of each team's backups, including third and even fourth stringers. There are also coaching tendencies to consider.
Note all 16 games this week are expected to be close, with spreads of 5 points or less posted on each. Check our live odds page for current spreads and totals.
Last year in Week 1, there was no point spread larger than -4, with favorites going 9-6-1 against the spread. The average total points scored was 36.
Here's a peak at a few of tonight's games, some picks sprinkled in.
Packers at Patriots
Line: New England -.2.5, Total: 37.5
Brady didn't play in Week 1 of the preseason last year, with the duties falling to Jimmy Garoppolo and the since-departed Ryan Mallett. Brady is unlikely to play in this game, and there is pressure on Garoppolo to perform as he hasn't looked great in practices so far and could be the starter when the regular season starts if Brady's four-game suspension is upheld. Ryan Lindley is the backup with Matt Flynn cut.
Trends to consider: New England is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four home preseason games....Green Bay is 0-5 SU and ATS in the first week of preseason over the last five years....Bill Belichick is 50-31 to the OVER in the preseason.
The Linemakers' lean: It's hard to ignore the Patriots' tendency to go OVER in the preseason, when Belichick doesn't exactly game plan on defense. Also, they won't let Garoppolo throw behind the second-string offensive line, so expect a productive second quarter for New England. OVER 37.5 is the play.
Saints at Ravens
Line: Baltimore -3, Total: 38
The Saints sat quarterback Drew Brees and several other starters in the first preseason game at St. Louis last year, still winning 26-24 as 1.5-point underdogs. Brees should see very limited action in this one, if he plays at all.
Baltimore will debut its new offensive coordinator, Marc Trestman. This will be a good opportunity to test his offense, although rookie receiver Breshad Perriman (knee) is not expected to play.
Trends to consider: Baltimore went 4-0 SU and ATS in the preseason last year. New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 preseason games.
The Linemakers' lean: The total here is pretty high for a preseason game, especially with a defensive-minded team like the Ravens involved, so we'll go UNDER the 38. Also, we like Baltimore's QB rotation with Matt Schaub getting some reps, so we'll lay the field goal as well.
Jets at Lions
Line: Detroit -4, Total: 35
The Jets have a new coach in Todd Bowles, but their propensity to shoot themselves in the foot hasn't changed. The latest news came on Tuesday when Smith broke his jaw in a locker room fight. He is expected out 6-10 weeks and now Bowles will turn to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The point spread moved up from -3 after the Smith news.
Trends to consider: Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six preseason games....The OVER is 8-1 in the Jets' last nine preseason games.
For our full betting preview of Thursday's NFL preseason slate, jump over to The Linemakers on Sporting News.
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