THE INTRO
I feel the adrenaline moving through my veins...
Spotlight on me and I'm ready to break...
I'm like a performer, the Dime is my stage...
Better be ready, hope that ya feel the same!
That's right, I'm starting the 2015 Dave's Dime season off by quoting Britney Spears song "Circus" from 2008.
This works for a couple of reasons. One, I just got back from seeing Britney's show in Las Vegas, so I've got her catalog stuck in my head. Two, as those of you that have been receiving the Dime for a while now know; it really is a circus around here.
So here we are again. Another year. They used to start with joy and optimism; "This will be the year that we crack the code!" "This year, I'm going to be a winner!" "This year, I'm going to prove that I'm better than some random coin flip!"
Now, I just kind of check in to work. Work that I'm not paid for. Work that I don't really have time for.
Why? Because I love you guys and girls. And I missed ya'll.
So let's go make some picks! For the love of the game! Or... something like that.
(But all seriousness, I do love you guys. Thanks for the continued support and for putting up with me for another year!)
THE RECORD
Last Season
Spread "Picks": 26 - 23 - 1 (.531)
Spread "Leans": 73 - 81 - 3 (.474)
Spread "Coin Flips": 23 - 24 - 1 (.489)
With the spread: 122 - 128 - 6 (.488)
Without the spread: 160 - 95 - 1 (.627)
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Spread "Leans": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Spread "Coin Flips": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
With the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Season
Spread "Picks": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Spread "Leans": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Spread "Coin Flips": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
With the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
(Coming Next Week)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(/) Pittsburgh (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)
Made this pick on Twitter: "Not going to get the Dime out until later in the week, so tweeting tonight's pick: New England -7 to win and cover. Enjoy the game!" (Link)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England (PUSH)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)
SUNDAY
($) Green Bay (-6.5) @ Chicago (+6.5)
Yes, John Fox should help get the Bears back on track sooner than later. Yes, Green Bay is dealing with some injury issues. Yes, this is a division rivalry game with a 6.5-point home dog. The problem is, I just can't visualize this game going any way other than Aaron Rodgers having a monster day and the Packers winning by double digits. For as bad as Cutler is against Green Bay and as a good as Rodgers is against Chicago, there is no other way to play this one if you don't overthink it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
(?) Kansas City @ Houston (Pick'em)
Just one of many, many difficult or impossible to call games in Week 1. I guess I like Kansas City's roster a bit better, but Houston can win this game at home, can't they? Or can they? I don't know, my first impulse was the Texans, so that's my eye-roll pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
(?) Cleveland (+3.5) @ New York (-3.5)
I'm somewhat high on the Jets this year, in the sense that I think the passing game could be better than expected and the defense should be quite good. But against a good defensive team like Cleveland, I just don't feel comfortable giving up 3.5 points. This game has 10-7, 13-10, 14-10, 17-14 written all over it. I do think the Jets will win, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was by seven or ten, but there are just too many score combinations for this type of game that go the Browns' way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York
(/) Indianapolis (-2.5) @ Buffalo (+2.5)
This seems like the perfect trap game for the Colts. The new-and-improved offense looks excellent on paper, but it will likely take a few games to gel all of the new pieces. Buffalo's defense is relentless against the pass, and the offense should be a lot better this season with LeSean McCoy and dual-threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Fans and talking heads will overreact to this result way too much if I'm right, but I see the Bills pulling off the upset at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
($) Miami (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
My "favorite" pick on the board, and I'm sort of scared of it. The line movement on this game has me wanting to take the Redskins, as money has steadily come in on Washington but the line has actually moved the other way as game time has approached. But in recent years, blindly picking the "odd" side of these lines has destroyed me. I am very high on Miami this year and think the Dolphins will compete for a playoff spot in the AFC this year. Washington is a team in turmoil both on and off the field. Going to try to spring the trap and stick with my confidence play of the week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami
(/) Carolina (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
On paper, Jacksonville still figures to be among the most awful teams in the league this year. The Jags did put together a 4-1 against the spread record over its last five games last year, showing that it could be at least mildly competitive. Was that something to build on? Maybe, and Carolina is far from unbeatable. But I'm not quite ready to take Jacksonville as only a three-point dog. Carolina should be good for a few big plays from Cam Newton and the defense, which should be enough to get the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
(/) Seattle (-4.0) @ St. Louis (+4.0)
At full strength, St. Louis might provide a more difficult test for the Seahawks. But down to a third-string running back against one of the league's best defenses, it's hard to see the Rams mustering up enough on offense to outlast Seattle in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
($) New Orleans (+2.5) @ Arizona (-2.5)
The Saints lost a handful of key players on offense from a team that didn't play well last year, especially on the road. Arizona returns most of a team that has played very well and routinely overachieved under head coach Bruce Arians, especially at home where the Cardinals are 13-3 over their last two seasons. The spread is only where it is because of the betting public's love for the Saints and disregard for the Cardinals. On the field, Arizona is the better team and should prove it on Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
(?) Detroit (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
I can't even begin to formulate an opinion on this game. I'm going with the home team. I'd be picking Detroit if it were there. It really is this simple and un-insightful.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: S
an Diego
(?) Tennessee (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Here's another game that I don't have much of an opinion on. It's two awful teams led by two exciting young quarterbacks. I am on "Team Mariota" when it comes to these two, so I guess I'll go with the Titans to pull off the upset on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee
(/) Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
I'm very intrigued by the Oakland Raiders this season. With an exciting young offense and a good defensive coach to help speed up the development of the defense, maybe the Raiders are finally going in the right direction. Or, maybe they aren't; Dennis Allen was a defensive minded coach too, and he couldn't do anything with this group. This should be a six to eight win team this year, and I'll be rooting for them to start off the Del Rio era with a win on Sunday. But Cincinnati is a rock-solid regular season team and should be able to take care of business against a Raiders team that still has plenty of holes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
(/) Baltimore (+4.5) @ Denver (-4.5)
This just feels like it should be a close, good game doesn't it? Baltimore is a well-rounded team that should play well on both sides of the ball this season, and Denver is somewhat of a question mark after last year's meltdown in the playoffs. I anticipate that the Broncos and Peyton Manning will be fine, but I'm not quite willing to lay 4.5 points on them against a group as solid as the Ravens, so I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) New York (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
These two teams tend to always play close games, making the 6.5 points too nice to pass up on. Orlando Scandrick going down in the Cowboys secondary creates a big matchup problem against Odell Beckham. And while I like Dallas's running back tandem and offensive line to do damage against the Giants, I don't know if this group will be as dominant as Murray was last season; especially not right out of the gate. Dallas should win, but I'm thinking the game is decided by three to six points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
MONDAY
($) Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Atlanta (+3.0)
Maybe I'm just not giving the Falcons enough respect, but what exactly did this team to do to fix its defense this offseason? How is Atlanta going to slow down this Eagles offense? And while Philadelphia is known for its offense, this team has the potential to be really solid on defense this year, too. Three points just isn't a big enough spread to scare me away in a game that I'm fairly confident the Eagles are going to win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
(/) Minnesota (-2.5) @ San Francisco (+2.5)
I have been leaning towards Minnesota in this games since before the preseason even started, even considering betting the Vikings at +3 in Las Vegas back in July. I think the Vikings have the potential for a solid year, and more importantly, I think the 49ers are going to be a complete disaster. But in the moments leading up to sending this out, I had a change of heart. San Francisco has been the butt-end of jokes and horrible season projections all preseason long, while Minnesota has been built up as a popular dark horse pick. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings come in over-confident and the 49ers come in with a chip on their shoulder, especially on a nationally televised Monday Night Game. I'm going to go with the 49ers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 7 – 3 – 0 (.700)
Buffalo +21.0 (WIN)
Georgia Tech -28.5 (WIN)
Virginia +13.0 (WIN)
Clemson -17.0 (WIN)
Oregon +4.0 (WIN)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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