THE INTRO
It has finally happened.
I have risen above... and become... a legend.
12-4 against the spread last week, picking over 70% winners on the season... I am clearly the greatest.
This isn't luck. This isn't just variance that will eventually regress back to the mean. No, I am an NFL Predicting God now.
As such, I am now charging $20 per newsletter. I was thinking of going with $10 per in sticking with the whole "Dime" thing, but no. I DESERVE THAT CASH.
Also, this charge is retroactive. So if you just signed up this season, you owe me $60. If you've been here since Day 1 (I'm looking at YOU, MOM!) you owe me $4,260.
I AM SO RICH NOW!!!!
Oh, shoot. This week's games start in 45 minutes and I haven't even sent this out yet.
Going to rapid fire through the picks this week to get this out on time. Will do ya'll a solid and only charge $17.50 for this one plus I'll throw in a Buy One Get One 50% Off Voucher at Hot Topic.
Or, you know, we could just keep doing this for free. I guess that's fine. I'm fine with not being rich. It's worked for the last 29 3/4 years.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 0 - 0 - 0 (N/A)
Spread "Leans": 5 - 2 - 0 (.714)
Spread "Coin Flips": 7 - 2 - 0 (.778)
With the spread: 12 - 4 - 1 (.750)
Without the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.563)
Season
Spread "Picks": 3 - 1 - 0 (.750)
Spread "Leans": 10 - 4 - 1 (.714)
Spread "Coin Flips": 9 - 4 - 0 (.692)
With the spread: 22 - 9 - 1 (.710)
Without the spread: 21 - 10 - 0 (.677)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
(/) Houston (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
(/) Arizona (-2.0) @ Chicago (+2.0)
(/) New England @ Buffalo (Pick'em)
(/) St. Louis (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
(/) Seattle (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
(?) San Francisco (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
(?) Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ New Orleans (-10.0)
(?) Detroit (+2.0) @ Minnesota (-2.0)
(?) San Diego (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
(?) Tennessee (-2.0) @ Cleveland (+2.0)
(?) Dallas (+5.0) @ Philadelphia (-5.0)
(?) NY Jets (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
THE BAD
(/) Miami (-5.5) @ Jacksonville (+5.5)
(/) Baltimore (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0)
(?) Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0)
(?) Atlanta (+2.5) @ NY Giants (-2.5)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
No "pick"s this week, and a ton of "coin flip"s. This is going to be an interesting week.
THURSDAY
(/) Washington (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
"Dave's Dime TNF Pick: WAS +3. Liked it better at +4, but w/ the way the Redskins are playing on D & NYG is coughing up games, I like upset." (https://twitter.com/DavesDime/status/647198256666046464)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington (LOSS)
SUNDAY
(/) Atlanta (-1.0) @ Dallas (+1.0)
Dallas is deep enough to win this one despite all of their injuries on offense, but the lack of success in the running game leaves me with doubts. Atlanta's offense should squeeze out a few more points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
($) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
Yeah, the Colts have been terrible, but it's been against two of the best passing defenses in the NFL. This line is giving way too much respect to a team with one win in its last eight games. Love the Colts to bounce back.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
(?) Oakland (+3.5) @ Cleveland (-3.5)
Loved the win last week, hope to see another one this week, but the Raiders are still really bad on defense and the running game isn't there. Good matchup for Cleveland and its strong pass defense, I think.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland
(/) Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Baltimore (-1.0)
Baltimore is a better team than its 0-2 record, at home and desperate for a win to avoid a doomsday 0-3 start. Think they'll edge out their division rivals here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(?) Jacksonville (+14.0) @ New England (-14.0)
Jacksonville's been showing some fight, and seems to be figuring things out on offense. The Patriots will doubtfully be taking this game too seriously. Seems like a decent spot for a Jags cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
(?) New Orleans (+10.0) @ Carolina (-10.0)
Carolina isn't really built to blow teams out, and the Saints have a decent enough backup quarterback. A blow out wouldn't be shocking, but I lean ever so slightly towards a closer game instead.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
(/) Philadelphia (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
The Eagles offense is broken, and while I expect it to get back on track eventually, I don't think it will be this week against a very good Jets defense. What a dream start for the Jets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets
(?) Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Houston (-6.0)
This spread just seems too high, doesn't it? JJ Watt could eat Jameis Winston alive, sure, but the Texans are just not strong enough on offense to trust to cover a spread like this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
(?) San Diego (+1.0) @ Minnesota (-1.0)
Tough one to call, but I'll go with the home team coming off of a really strong performance last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
(/) Pittsburgh (-1.0) @ St. Louis (+1.0)
I love this Steelers offense, and I love it even more with Le'Veon Bell back in the mix. The Rams will score too, but I think the Steelers eventually blow them away.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
(/) San Francisco (+6.5) @ Arizona (-6.5)
Wait, Arizona has an offense now, too? San Francisco's defense could be in for another long day.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
(?) Buffalo (+1.5) @ Miami (-1.5)
We still don't know much about Buffalo, who's win over Indy looks less impressive after the Colts struggled at home against the Jets and who's loss against New England was anything but impressive on defense. Still, Miami hasn't looked sharp at all either. Gut tells me Buffalo is the better team at this exact moment.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo
(/) Chicago (+14.5) @ Seattle (-14.5)
Seattle desperately needs a win and a team with an awful defense and an offense led by Jimmy Clausen is coming to town. I'd say Seattle will probably win and cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
($) Denver (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
This is just a horrible matchup for the Lions, who are bad on defense against the run and one-dimensional on offense against a really strong defense. I see Denver winning comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
MONDAY
(/) Kansas City (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Have respect for the Chiefs, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are just about unbeatable at home. Should take care of business on Monday night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 11 – 8 – 1 (.579)
Georgia Tech -8.5 (LOSS)
Washington +4.0 (LOSS)
Mississippi State +2.5 (WIN)
Texas A&M -7.0 (PUSH)
ASU +6.0 (LOSS)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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For past issues of the Dime and all of my current and archived work, visit www.davesdime.com
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