THE INTRO
What's this?!? A Saturday morning release?!?
We are trending in the right direction! Maybe someday we'll actually get this thing out midweek like I'd originally planned to...
...but probably not.
Speaking of trending in the right direction, in the Dime's 11th season of publication (God I'm getting old), this is my best start ever. I'd never before started the season off with three straight winning weeks, and 31-16-1 is my best record through the first three weeks of the season ever.
Which is awesome. But it sort of reminds me of the scene in the Dark Knight Rises when Bruce Wayne is dancing with Selina Kyle.
"You think all this can last? There's a storm coming Mr, Wayne. You and your friends better batten down the hatches, because when it hits, you're all gonna wonder how you ever thought you could live so large and leave so little for the rest of us."
Only I'm not dancing with the beautiful Anne Hathaway. I'm dancing with the Angry Football Gods, who I sort of picture looking like Roger Goddell after he lost the Tom Brady case.
Still, I'll ride it out as long as I can. It's fun to win. I'd forgotten the feeling.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 1 - 1 - 0 (.500)
Spread "Leans": 5 - 3 - 0 (.625)
Spread "Coin Flips": 3 - 3 - 0 (.500)
With the spread: 9 - 7 - 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
Season
Spread "Picks": 4 - 2 - 0 (.667)
Spread "Leans": 15 - 7 - 1 (.682)
Spread "Coin Flips": 12 - 7 - 0 (.632)
With the spread: 31 - 16 - 1 (.660)
Without the spread: 34 - 14 - 0 (.708)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
($) Denver (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
(/) Atlanta (-1.0) @ Dallas (+1.0)
(/) Pittsburgh (-1.0) @ St. Louis (+1.0)
(/) San Francisco (+6.5) @ Arizona (-6.5)
(/) Chicago (+14.5) @ Seattle (-14.5)
(/) Kansas City (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
(?) New Orleans (+10.0) @ Carolina (-10.0)
(?) San Diego (+1.0) @ Minnesota (-1.0)
(?) Buffalo (+1.5) @ Miami (-1.5)
THE BAD
($) Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
(/) Washington (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
(/) Cincinnati (+1.0) @ Baltimore (-1.0)
(/) Philadelphia (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
(?) Oakland (+3.5) @ Cleveland (-3.5)
(?) Jacksonville (+14.0) @ New England (-14.0)
(?) Tampa Bay (+6.0) @ Houston (-6.0)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(?) Baltimore (-3.0) @ Pittsburgh (+3.0)
"Dave's Dime Thursday Night Football Pick: No idea at all. I'm going to take the Steelers +3 to win outright at home as a total guess." https://twitter.com/DavesDime/status/649726791020470272
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh
SUNDAY
(?) NY Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami (+1.5)
The Dolphins are due to get their season on track at some point. Doing so to avoid a third straight loss and an awful flight from London home seems like a good a spot as any, I suppose.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami
(/) Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Indianapolis (-9.0)
With Andrew Luck's status up in the air, the Jaguars become a pretty clear choice with the points. Even with Luck, this offense hasn't worked due to its abysmal offensive line.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
($) NY Giants (+5.0) @ Buffalo (-5.0)
I'm still not quite sure how good the Bills are, but they are good. Definitely good enough to take care of the Giants at home. Should make life pretty tough on Eli and company.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
(/) Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
This one seems extremely trappy. Perhaps Vegas isn't sold on Carolina after three wins over three weak teams? Could be fair, as the Panthers aren't the greatest of 3-0 teams, but does that mean they can't beat the Buccaneers? With a bye week next week for the Panthers, there is no reason to not be focused for this game. I'll go ahead and try to spring the trap here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
(?) Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
I don't know what to do here. Washington is just so bad, especially on offense, to consider going with here. The Eagles aren't much better though with two good halves on offense this season through three full games. I guess I lean towards the Eagles based on preseason projections, but not thrilled about touching this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
($) Oakland (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Okay, Raiders. You've suckered me into believing you are a decent team. You've got a pretty damn good offense, and the Bears suck. You should win this game. This is usually the point that you go back to being Mr. Hyde, as soon as I buy in even a little; but really, there is no reason Oakland can't and shouldn't win this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland
(/) Houston (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0)
The Falcons have a handful of injuries that may slow them down on offense this week, but it shouldn't slow them down to the pace of the Houston Texans. Houston's anemic offense will put the team in a tough spot against teams like Atlanta that are going to score when given enough opportunities with good field position. Should be another win for the Falcons.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
(?) Kansas City (+4.0) @ Cincinnati (-4.0)
This spread looks pretty spot on to me. The Chiefs have just had a brutal stretch of games to start the season since getting Houston in Week 1 facing the Broncos in Week 2, Green Bay last week and now Cincinnati this week. The Bengals are really solid and play well at home, but they aren't really built to blow teams out, either. I see them winning by around four, making this a tough spread to call, but I guess I'll lean their way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
(?) Cleveland (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Four games into the season and I'm still not sure what to make of San Diego. Cleveland has a little bit of a pulse on offense, and the Chargers have been pretty bad on defense, so I'll go ahead and take the points in a game I'd prefer to ignore altogether.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
($) Green Bay (-8.0) @ San Francisco (+8.0)
Colin Kaepernick's confidence appears to be shot at this point, and it isn't like he's got much of a supporting cast around him, either. Aaron Rodgers is completely dialed in and the Packers are a clear tier above the 49ers. Not going to overthink this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
($) St. Louis (+7.0) @ Arizona (-7.0)
Until Arizona gives us a reason to go against them, we should keep rolling with them. Especially against the Rams, who since shocking the football world with their win over Seattle have looked absolutely awful in their last two games. Hard to see St. Louis being able to keep up on offense in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
(/) Minnesota (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)
I have a ton of respect for Denver, especially on defense. But I also like Minnesota's defense, and this game feels to me like one that will be an ugly 17-13 or 20-14 type of game. I see the Broncos winning it far more often than not, but I also see the Vikings keeping the score close in a good portion of those sims. I wouldn't be surprised by a double-digit Denver win, but I'm expecting a closer game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) Dallas (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Dallas finally got the running game going last week with four rushing touchdowns in the first half, but had a meltdown on both sides of the ball in the team's home loss to Atlanta. Still, I saw enough on offense with Romo out to lead me to believe that the Cowboys can win this game. The Saints have lost six straight at home and haven't looked good at all this season; even with Brees back, I think New Orleans will continue to struggle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas
MONDAY
(?) Detroit (+9.5) @ Seattle (-9.5)
Seattle looked like the Seattle of old last week in its clear dominance over the Bears... but it was the Bears with Jimmy Clausen leading the way. Is Seattle really back on track, or was it just an opportune game? I lean towards the Seahawks being back on track, but I don't feel great about giving up 9.5 points to a team with a pulse without a little more proof. But that's the way I'm leaning.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 11 – 8 – 1 (.579)
Oregon -7.0
Eastern Michigan +44.5
Mississippi State +7.0
Purdue +21.5
Southern Miss -16.0
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
---------------------
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!
For past issues of the Dime and all of my current and archived work, visit www.davesdime.com
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.