THE INTRO
I miss broadcasting. Badly. If I make it out of my first holiday season as an Amazon reseller in one piece, one of my top goals for 2016 is to get back into broadcasting online. YouTube, Live Streaming, Podcasting, something.
Whatever it is, it will almost certainly not be in sports.
I'm sick of sports. Let's recap my last week really quick.
Saturday: Had a seven-game, seven-point teaser of Oregon ML, Eastern Michigan +52, Notre Dame/Clemson UNDER 57, Southern Miss -9.5, Purdue +28.5, Alabama +8, and Mississippi State +12.5. Six of those teams covered their spread by double-digits, never in doubt. Mississippi State lost by 13, costing me a +718 play by half of a point. I also had $100 on the Blue Jays to beat the Rays; a play that went up in smoke with two outs in the bottom of the ninth when a guy batting .222 on the year got a walk-off hit.
Sunday: My Raiders are off to their best start in years and have me believing just a tiny little bit. Jay Cutler is announced a go for the Bears in a virtual game-time decision, and leads the Bears on a soul-crushing game-winning field goal drive as the clock expires. Also, I had a huge five-team 10-point teaser of Denver +3, Arizona +3, Green Bay +3, Atlanta +4, Buffalo +4.5. Once again, I miss by one game as the Bills take 17 penalties and lose big to the Giants at home.
Monday: The Seahawks failed to cover the spread to break the Dime's three-week winning streak.
Tuesday: I get this email: "pLEASE REMOVE ME FROM THIS MAILING LIST PLEASE" Okay, okay, calm down buddy. You are removed. One .500 week and you're done with me, huh?
Wednesday: In the LA Kings home opener, the Kings lose 5-1 to the Sharks. I didn't even get to celebrate the one goal, because the ref behind the net was frantically waving his arms in the "no goal" motion for some reason. Probably just to troll me?
Thursday: The Blue Jays, who I have at 18/1 to win the World Series, lose Game 1 in the afternoon as David Price pitches one of his worst games of the season. Later in the evening, the USC Trojans lose as a 17-point home favorite to the Washington Huskies, effectively ending any chance at a playoff run or really even a Rose Bowl berth. I didn't like the Sarkisian hire from the get go, and he keeps proving me right.
Friday: Blue Jays lose Game 2. In 14 innings. With the umpire calling such an inconsistent game against Toronto that even the commentators were mentioning it. Later in the evening, the Kings drop to 0-2 on the season with a humiliating 4-1 home loss to the Coyotes, one of the worst teams in the league.
Saturday: 2-3 on college picks. Nick Chubb goes down in the first moments of the game for Georgia, other two losses fail to cover by a combined 3.5 points. Cool. Also, Team USA loses to Mexico in extra time.
So basically, that's an entire week of being in a bad mood. For sports. Why?!? Who cares?!?
I'm thinking of focusing my energy on comedy. Or video games. Or frigging knitting or basket weaving or bird watching or ship in a bottle building.
ANYTHING BUT SPORTS.
With all of that said, maybe the Jays will win today and the Dime will go 12-0 and I'll LOVE sports again.
For one day, anyway.
THE RECORD
Last Week
Spread "Picks": 1 - 3 - 0 (.250)
Spread "Leans": 4 - 1 - 0 (.800)
Spread "Coin Flips": 3 - 3 - 0 (.500)
With the spread: 7 - 7 - 1 (.500)
Without the spread: 8 - 7 - 0 (.533)
Season
Spread "Picks": 5 - 5 - 0 (.500)
Spread "Leans": 19 - 8 - 1 (.704)
Spread "Coin Flips": 14 - 10 - 1 (.583)
With the spread: 38 - 23 - 1 (.623)
Without the spread: 42 - 21 - 0 (.667)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK
THE GOOD
($) Green Bay (-8.0) @ San Francisco (+8.0)
(/) Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Indianapolis (-9.0)
(/) Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
(/) Houston (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0)
(/) Minnesota (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)
(?) Kansas City (+4.0) @ Cincinnati (-4.0)
(?) Cleveland (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
(?) Baltimore (-3.0) @ Pittsburgh (+3.0) PUSH
THE BAD
($) NY Giants (+5.0) @ Buffalo (-5.0)
($) Oakland (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
($) St. Louis (+7.0) @ Arizona (-7.0)
(/) Dallas (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
(?) NY Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami (+1.5)
(?) Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
(?) Detroit (+9.5) @ Seattle (-9.5)
THE PICKS
($) - Indicates a "Pick", which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) - Indicates a "Lean", which is the side that I'm leaning towards
(?) - Indicates a "Coin Flip", where I don't have much of an opinion
* - Indicates Outright Upset Pick
THURSDAY
(?) Indianapolis (+5.0) @ Houston (-5.0)
"Dave's Dime Thursday Night Pick: Would avoid this game altogether, but even with Luck out, I'll take the Colts as a 5-point dog, Texans win."
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston (LOSS)
SUNDAY
(?) Chicago (+9.5) @ Kansas City (-9.5)
In principle I agree with Kansas City being a huge favorite here. The Chiefs have had really bad luck in how tough their early schedule has been, and at home against a weak opponent, it should be all systems go. But the Bears offense has a pulse with Jay Cutler under center, and the Chiefs are a 1-3 team who's only win came by just a touchdown to the lowly Texans. So, I guess I feel like I have to take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City
(?) Seattle (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
I'm actually really excited about this game. The Bengals have looked great, but can they get the job done against a legitimate contender? It helps that the Seahawks aren't playing like one on offense, especially with Marshawn Lynch out. I'm really torn on this one. I've had Cinci circled all week, but the more I sim it in my head, the more I see Seattle's defense forcing Andy Dalton into a bunch of mistakes. Maybe a 16-13 type of game? I guess I'll roll the dice on the Seahawks, but I'm genuninely split on this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle
(/) Washington (+7.0) @ Atlanta (-7.0)
Credit Washington to playing to its potential through the first four games of the season. Sadly for the Redskins, that potential isn't very high. Even with a strong effort on Sunday, it will be hard to keep up with this Falcons offense for four quarters.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
(?) Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Next. What do you mean I HAVE to pick it? This is my column, I can do what I want. Oh, I made the rule to pick every game no matter what? Ugh. Um, Jacksonville, I guess? They've been playing decent this year. Or something. I don't know, like I said, next.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville
(/) New Orleans (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0)
Philadelphia has played eight halves of football this season, looking useless in five of them and good in three of them. I can't lay six points on a team that inconsistent. The Saints have been far from world beaters this year, but last week's win over Dallas should be a nice confidence booster for this team, and I think they might have an upset in them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
(?) Cleveland (+6.0) @ Baltimore (-6.0)
I mean I guess we just have to come to terms with the fact that Baltimore isn't that good. On paper I'd think they were a touchdown better than the Browns, but so far on the field this season? Through a quarter of the year? We sort of have to take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
(/) St. Louis (+9.0) @ Green Bay (-9.0)
st. Louis has proven to be a tough out against some tough teams this season, making the Rams a tempting pick with nine points. But with Green Bay's defense playing great and Aaron Rodgers doing his thing on offense, the Packers currently have me in auto-circle mode until further notice.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
(/) Buffalo (-1.0) @ Tennessee (+1.0)
Yes, Buffalo looked awful at home last week, and it has us all questioning just how good the Bills really are. They are good enough to beat the Titans though, that I feel pretty sure of.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
(/) Arizona (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
Last week's hiccup aside, I'm still very pro-Arizona. This one seems like a potential shootout that could go either way, but I like the Cards to do a bit more and get the job done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
(?) New England (-9.0) @ Dallas (+9.0)
Coming off the bye against a Romo-less and Dez-less Cowboys team, the Patriots should cruise to an easy win. But giving up nine points in the NFL on the road to a team that still has plenty of talent despite its injuries? There are better spots than this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
(/) Denver (-4.0) @ Oakland (+4.0)
This one was close to being a "pick", but I've already been wrong on two Raider picks this year, although the last one wasn't my fault as I wouldn't have taken the Raiders as a "$" last week if I knew Cutler was playing. But I digress. This is one of those weird reverse-line-movement games where action is coming in on Denver but the line has moved against the Broncos from -5.5 to -4.0. That fact makes me nervous that I'm missing something, because this spread seems way too low for a Denver team that is playing well and has routinely stomped the Raiders by double-digits. Broncos are a clear pick in this spot, I think.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
(/) San Francisco (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
The New York Giants would be 4-0 if they'd held on to big leads against Dallas and Atlanta, and they are trending in the right direction after a strong showing against Buffalo last week. San Francisco is broken beyond repair with a quarterback that has lost his confidence. Hard to like the 49ers on the road in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants
MONDAY
(?) Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ San Diego (-4.0)
The Chargers are 2-2, and their two wins have come by a combined eight points. Pittsburgh has had an extra couple of days to rest and prepare for this game. Forced to pick a side, I'll go with the Steelers in a road upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
THE COLLEGE NICKEL
RECORD: 17 – 12 – 1 (.586)
Arkansas +17.0 (WIN)
Navy +14.5 (LOSS)
Georgia -3.0 (LOSS)
Utah -7.0 (LOSS)
Baylor -44.0 (WIN)
Good luck! Thanks for reading!
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