Duke was able to put up points against bad defenses this season. Texas A&M fits that description.
The Aggies' 105th-ranked defense will be tested by the upstart Blue Devils in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on New Year's Eve in Atlanta. However, in what could be Johnny Manziel's college farewell, Texas A&M is a double-digit favorite in an SEC-ACC matchup featuring a giant total.
Line: Texas A&M -12.5, Total: 76
Line movement: A&M opened as an 11.5-point favorite at the Wynn. The total, one of the largest of the bowl season, keeps get betting up. It opened in the 73.5-74 range and sits between 75 and 76.5 as of about noon Tuesday.
History and trends: Texas A&M went 2-6 against the spread vs. bowl teams this season. Duke went 5-2 ATS vs. bowl teams. … Duke coach David Cutcliffe is 4-2 ATS in bowls. A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is 2-1 ATS in bowls. … The Blue Devils have covered the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs. … The Aggies went 1-4 ATS on the road this season.
Duke outlook: The Blue Devils lost back-to-back games to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, before running off eight straight wins. They scored 48 points in an upset of Miami, but were out-classed in 45-7 loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Cutcliffe uses two quarterbacks in Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette. Neither has played exceptionally well, and interceptions have been a problem at times. But the Blue Devils averaged 35 points in their final four games of the regular season. Duke has picked off 18 passes this season.
Texas A&M outlook: There's no question that A&M has more next-level talent than the Blue Devils, but motivation and focus are question marks for the Aggies. This was a team with BCS expectations that played Auburn and Alabama down to the wire. But A&M faded down the stretch with road losses to LSU and Missouri. Manziel and the offense were held to 10 and 21 points respectively in those losses. Duke's defense isn't close to the caliber of LSU or Missouri, though.
The Linemakers' lean: We have a team getting a dozen-plus points that has more motivation, a better defense and the belief that it can win the game outright. Johnny Football's mind is probably already on the NFL. We'll take the points, and how about a small play on Duke +350 on the money line?
