Super Bowl picks from The Linemakers and our partners

By The Linemakers, Sporting News	@TheLinemakers


In the second half of the AFC title game blowout, the Super Bowl line opened Seattle -2.5 . A flood of Patriots money pushed it all the way to New England -1, where the number sits at most shops on Friday. The Linemakers on Sporting News' Kenny White said of the initial move on New England, "Probably the most movement I've seen on the Super Bowl since I've been following this for 30 years, but a lot of it has to with the number (being) so close to zero." There's a difference of opinion on how the line will move ahead of kickoff, as some expect public money to push the line on the Pats higher, while others think Seattle money is bound to show. The total opened as high as 49, and early bettors pounded the UNDER. Most books were at 48 by mid-week, with a few down to 47.5. The Linemakers' lean: The opening line – Seahawks -2.5 – was about where the spread should be for this game. Our power ratings make Seattle a 2-point favorite. "I don't get it," The Linemakers' Micah Roberts said of the early move to Patriots -1. "Before the championship game, we were looking at a 3-point spread." A half-point adjustment on both teams after their respective conference championship performances is justified, but even that gets us to Seattle -2. We're getting about 3 points of value with the underdog here. The Seahawks win a game dominated by defense. Seattle +1 and UNDER 48 are the plays. Massey-Peabody, our partners we call The Quants, are on the other side Sunday. Cade Massey writes, "We have Sunday's Super Bowl rated New England -2.45. ... At pick 'em or New England -1, it's a Break-Even or Better pick (that's a third-level play that has a 52.5 to 54 percent chance of winning). Should the point spread get to Pats +1, it's a second-level Other Play (54 to 55 percent chance to win). And at a line of Pats +2, it becomes a Big Play (a best bet, with a 55 percent or better chance to win). ... "A lot of people seem to have expected us to be on the Seahawks. Many have asked whether public money is just overreacting to the Pats running away from the Colts in the AFC Championship. Maybe. Probably, even. "But going into Championship Sunday, we would have made the spread NE -1.17 vs. SEA. Then our model dropped Seattle a bit (from +7.29 to +7.06) due to their shenanigans against the Packers, and bumped New England substantially (for this late in the year), from +8.46 to +9.51. "Perhaps the public adjusted even more, which means our edge would have been greater had the Patriots beaten the Colts by 6 like they were 'supposed' to. But the short answer is that we've had the Pats No. 1 in the league since Week 15, and we're not at all surprised to be on their side." AccuScore, meanwhile, gives the Seahawks a 52.7 percent chance to win the game. The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is Seattle 26.2 - New England 25.1. Rohit Ghosh writes, "This past NFL season, when predicting games with a spread of 3 points or less, AccuScore has gone 45-36 (55.6 percent, +540 units). When AccuScore's and Vegas' point spreads have differed by 2 to 2.5 points, AccuScore has gone 21-11 (65.6 percent, +890 units). At Seahawks +1 or higher, Sunday's Super Bowl fits the criteria." Best of luck this Super Bowl Sunday!