LAS VEGAS -- UFC 190 comes to us Saturday from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with a women's bantamweight title bout between two undefeated fighters – champion Ronda Rousey and challenger Bethe Correia. Rousey is a prohibitive -2000 favorite to retain her title, while Correia gets 10-to-1 odds as the underdog.
Rousey (11-0) has become the biggest star in the UFC and has also been the most dominant. Only one of her fights has made it out of the first round, and that was a third-round submission win over Miesha Tate. Ronda's last two fights have taken a total of 30 seconds combined.
Correia (9-0) comes off a second-round win over veteran Shayna Baszler. Correia was in trouble in the first round against Baszler and had to escape a submission attempt. Correia is at her best, though, in her stand-up game. If she can keep this fight on the feet, she has a chance – as all fighters do – of landing a big punch and getting a KO. That's easier said than done against Rousey.
Rousey, unfortunately for other bantamweights, has improved her stand-up game over the past few years to go along with her outstanding ground and submission game, namely, the greatest arm bar in all of MMA.
We never recommend laying 20-to-1 in any MMA fight, so we'll try to make a case for Correia as the 10-to-1 dog. Until another fighter holds her own against Rousey on the ground, let's assume the only way to beat her is to knock her out or outbox her and keep the fight standing the whole way. Correia, who hails from Brazil, should get a big lift from the home crowd, and she can make this fight interesting by keeping it standing. Rousey's last two opponents, however, had the same idea, and that didn't work out for either of them.
The Linemakers' lean: With no value on the favorite, it's the dog or no bet for us. Many great fighters have lost a bout, and it's never easy to see an upset of this proportion coming. So let's take a shot with underdog Bethe Correia to shock the MMA world and beat Ronda Rousey as a huge 10-to-1 dog and become women's bantamweight champion.
Hugh Citron is the first oddsmaker to post lines on MMA fights in Las Vegas. He contributes to The Linemakers on Sporting News for key UFC events.
