Here are two reasons why most bettors are not profitable in their wagering endeavors: 1) they too often swing for the fences rather than taking a methodical, grind-it-out approach, and 2) they too often bet with their heart.
So which team do you suppose is getting the most action in early futures betting on this summer’s World Cup?
The good ole USA, at an enticing price of 100-to-1, of course. Never mind that the Stars and Stripes don’t have a realistic chance of winning their first World Cup title this year or that they don’t offer much value even at 100-to-1. And no, this week’s uninspiring performance in a 2-0 loss to Ukraine is not likely to change anybody's mind, either. We say this over and over, but the public loves to bet a little for the opportunity to make a lot.
“They’re betting the U.S.,” LVH SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “We have them at 100-to-1. They’re definitely the most popular team as far as ticket count – not the amount of money bet, but ticket count. They’re about one-and-half times what Germany has. It pretty much goes U.S, Germany and Brazil as the order of what the public's betting.”
William Hill senior trader Adam Pullen put it this way, “The biggest loser we have is going to be the U.S. In the city, we’re going to get buried if the U.S. wins.”
But the bigger bets, naturally, are coming in on the favorites.
The amount wagered is “pretty much weighted amongst the top four,” according to Sherman. “Brazil, Argentina, Spain and Germany are dominating the dollar amount. What you tend to see is more money bet on the shorter favorites. It was just like that with the NBA with the Heat, the Thunder and the Pacers getting the larger wagers, even though they’re not necessarily dominating the ticket count.”
As for bets on individual matches, the public, per usual, will play the chalk. In three-way bets on soccer games, you can bet either side to win or the match to end in a draw.
“We’re not going to need the favorite in any match, I can tell that you right now,” said Pullen. “You can name the match. We’re not going to need Brazil or any of the top teams to win – we’re going to be rooting for draws. That’s what everybody who’s booking the World Cup is going to be rooting for, because nobody likes to bet the draw.”
Soccer sharps?
So are the bigger World Cup bets being made by respected, professional gamblers – who we refer to as sharps? This won’t surprise anyone, but U.S. bettors’ soccer chops aren’t as refined as they are for sports like football, baseball and basketball.
“The sharp stuff we pay attention to is the worldwide market,” said Sherman. “In Las Vegas, you don’t see much sharp soccer action. The sharp soccer action you see – outside a handful of guys – is ‘scalpers,’ when they’re finding differences between the worldwide market and stale prices in the Las Vegas market.
“It’s not like the U.S. sports, where there are sharp groups handicapping it. There’s really not that much (of it with soccer). This is more of a public betting sport.”
Pullen said there’ll be some sharp money wagered on the World Cup but stressed, “like with Super Bowl wagering, public money will outweigh it. “
Coming attractions
Most books in Nevada have had World Cup futures odds on their boards for some time (even before the numbers posted after the draw), as well as odds to win the groups, and lines and totals for the first set of games. More betting options will be added as we approach June 12, when Brazil vs. Croatia gets the tournament underway.
Among the props we’ll see at both the LVH and William Hill are who will win the Golden Boot (the tournament’s leading goal scorer) and whether a team will advance into the knockout stages.
As for single-match bets, Sherman said he’ll post first- and second-half lines on all the matches, and once we get to the round of 16, he’ll have alternate spreads and totals, exact-score props and wagers such as ‘will Lionel Messi score a goal?’
William Hill will consult with its U.K.-based parent company to come up with even more props.
“They do so much more in terms of betting options than we do, so we definitely have them to rely on, look at and follow and see what action they’re taking and the different stuff that they’re doing,” he said. “We want to try to put out as much as we can, and not just in terms of quantity, but quality – ideas that we maybe haven’t come up with. So it’s good to have them to be able to look at as a reference and help us out.”
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