Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Royals face nemesis Lester as MLB playoffs get started

SEPTEMBER 2014    Sporting News Linemakers Archive

Royals face nemesis Lester as MLB playoffs get started

@TheLinemakers

 

With the 2014 MLB playoff field set, focus should be on the bevy of front-line starting pitching we'll see from several of this year's World Series contenders.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals, 9-to-2 World Series co-favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, will each throw two high-level aces at their divisional series opponent.

The Dodgers lead with National League MVP candidate Clayton Kershaw and back him up with Zack Greinke. However, the Tigers' duo of David Price and Max Scherzer is nearly as terrifying, as is the Nationals' combo of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.

"The Nationals' rotation has me believing they’ll be the toughest in any series format and they deserve to be co-favorites," says The Linemakers on Sporting News' Micah Roberts.  The Nats boast impressive rotation depth with Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez rounding out their top four.

Roberts, though, is actually looking to the Steel City for the top postseason value.

"If the Pirates can get past their wild-card game against the Giants, I think they're the most dangerous postseason club and the best value. They have a steady rotation with Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano pitching at their best right now and a great bullpen. The thing I love most about them though is the efficiency of their offense. They take pitches, get on base and have some surprising pop up and down their lineup."

First up, the Kansas City Royals make their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985 and welcome the A’s in tonight’s AL wild-card game (8:07 p.m. ET, TBS).  The A’s made it interesting down the stretch by losing 20 of their last 30 games, but managed to survive.  They bring their big hired gun – Jon Lester – to the match.

With James Shields set to take the hill for the Royals, we couldn’t have asked for a better pitching matchup to kick off the playoffs.

Line: A's -102, Royals -108 (William Hill), Total: 6.5 (UNDER -115)

Here's a snapshot of each pitcher and a lean from The Linemakers on Sporting News:

How did Shields fare against the A‘s in 2014? Shields was fortunate to face the A’s in the second half of the season, when the A’s weren’t the best team in baseball. In his first chance, Aug. 4 at Oakland, he beat Scott Kazmir, 4-2. On Aug. 14 at Kansas City, he beat Jeff Samardzija, 7-3. “Big Game” James hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2008 World Series and lost his last two postseason starts, in 2010 and 2011 with Tampa Bay.

How did Lester fare against the Royals in 2014? He was a perfect 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in three starts, including an 11-3 road win over Jeremy Guthrie on Aug 12. He also beat them, 8-3, on Aug. 2 at Oakland.  His other win against K.C. came when he was pitching for Boston, 6-0 at Fenway Park on July 20. He gave up five runs (three earned) in his most recent start, a 5-4 loss to the Angels last Wednesday, but had allowed only three runs combined in his three starts prior -- all wins. All-time, Lester is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA against the Royals. In 13 postseason outings, Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA.

The Linemakers’ lean: We’re going to side with the home team here, largely because of the A’s hitting woes. Lester is tough to go against, and there is actually value on him in this spot, but he’s not the only consideration. Shields should be the favorite – he has a better supporting cast at this juncture. This has the look of a 1-1 game going into the eighth and the Oakland bullpen giving in first. We’ll take the Royals and UNDER.  

More on MLB playoffs: World Series odds | Full AL wild card bet preview | NL wild card preview 

 


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Line of the day

“ New England opened Sunday as a 3-point favorite for its Week 5 matchup vs. the Bengals. After losing 41-14 in K.C. last night, the game was reposted in Vegas between a pick 'em and Cincy -1. ”

 
 
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